Zalaegerszegi TE 1:0 Puskás Akadémia: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 15:30

Full time

Match report · NB I (Hungary)

Zalaegerszegi TE Home 1.28 xG

Puskás Akadémia Away 1.38 xG

10 The chances were evenly matched

Zalaegerszegi TE were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 1–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Zalaegerszegi TE: 36% What happened
Draw: 28%
Puskás Akadémia: 35%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Zalaegerszegi TE 1.52 1.28 -0.24

Puskás Akadémia 1.50 1.38 -0.12

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Zalaegerszegi TE Puskás Akadémia

Shots: 8; 16
On target: 2; 4
Inside the box: 4; 10
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Zalaegerszegi TE

0.92 xG created 1.77 xGA

L 1.04 created, 1.37 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
L 1.17 created, 2.03 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
L 0.93 created, 1.70 conceded against Ferencváros TC
L 0.42 created, 2.36 conceded against Vasas
L 1.36 created, 2.11 conceded against Ferencváros TC
L 0.61 created, 1.02 conceded against Budapest Honvéd FC

Puskás Akadémia

2.48 xG created 2.16 xGA

D 2.09 created, 2.98 conceded against MTK Budapest
L 2.17 created, 2.54 conceded against Kisvárda FC
W 3.63 created, 1.70 conceded against MTK Budapest
W 3.67 created, 2.30 conceded against Paksi FC
W 2.58 created, 1.49 conceded against Vasas
L 0.73 created, 1.95 conceded against Ferencváros TC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Zalaegerszegi TE: 1 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Zalaegerszegi TE against Puskás Akadémia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.57	+4.4%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+3.1%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.70	+2.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Zalaegerszegi TE	36.1%	34.8%	+1.3 pp	2.77
Draw	28.4%	26.6%	+1.8 pp	3.52
Puskás Akadémia	35.5%	38.5%	−3.1 pp	2.82

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	66.5%	58.9%	+7.6 pp	1.50
Both teams not to score	33.5%	41.1%	−7.6 pp	2.98
Over 1.5 goals	84.3%	76.6%	+7.7 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	15.7%	23.4%	−7.7 pp	6.38
Over 2.5 goals	60.0%	55.3%	+4.8 pp	1.67
Under 2.5 goals	40.0%	44.7%	−4.8 pp	2.50

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Zalaegerszegi TE sample: 20 matches
Puskás Akadémia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.