DAC 1904 2:0 ŠK Slovan Bratislava: xG & match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 20:30

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Match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

DAC 1904 Home 1.91 xG

ŠK Slovan Bratislava Away 0.35 xG

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

DAC 1904 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was ŠK Slovan Bratislava's attack: 0.35 xG against 1.46 projected (−1.11).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

DAC 1904: 41% What happened
Draw: 28%
ŠK Slovan Bratislava: 31%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

DAC 1904 1.68 1.91 +0.23

ŠK Slovan Bratislava 1.46 0.35 -1.11

ŠK Slovan Bratislava produced 1.11 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

DAC 1904 ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Shots: 18; 8
On target: 3; 1
Inside the box: 7; 2
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.04

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

DAC 1904

1.68 xG created 1.31 xGA

L 0.92 created, 1.11 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
L 1.61 created, 1.32 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
W 1.43 created, 1.31 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
D 1.21 created, 2.41 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
W 2.68 created, 1.21 conceded against KFC Komárno
W 2.23 created, 0.49 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

2.50 xG created 1.07 xGA

L 0.56 created, 1.85 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
W 1.66 created, 1.08 conceded against Dukla Banská Bystrica
W 3.14 created, 0.98 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
W 2.52 created, 1.11 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
W 4.66 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Košice
L 2.45 created, 0.46 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

DAC 1904: 0 won · 0 drawn · 4 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on DAC 1904 against ŠK Slovan Bratislava before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
DAC 1904 to win	2.82	+16.7%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.64	+2.8%	Lost
Draw	3.67	+1.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
DAC 1904	41.4%	33.7%	+7.7 pp	2.42
Draw	27.6%	25.9%	+1.7 pp	3.63
ŠK Slovan Bratislava	31.1%	40.4%	−9.4 pp	3.22

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 2.5 goals	62.6%	57.9%	+4.7 pp	1.60
Under 2.5 goals	37.4%	42.1%	−4.7 pp	2.68

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
DAC 1904 sample: 20 matches
ŠK Slovan Bratislava sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.