Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 19:00
Full timeFC Spartak Trnava 1:3 MŠK Žilina
FC Spartak Trnava were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. MŠK Žilina won 3–1.
The model against the result
- FC Spartak Trnava
- 54%
- Draw
- 26%
- MŠK Žilina
- 21% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
2.37 xG created 1.06 xGA
- W 2.62 created, 1.10 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- L 1.31 created, 1.43 conceded against DAC 1904
- W 1.92 created, 1.59 conceded against KFC Komárno
- W 3.82 created, 0.56 conceded against Dukla Banská Bystrica
- W 2.73 created, 0.26 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- W 1.82 created, 1.44 conceded against AS Trenčín
1.58 xG created 1.52 xGA
- W 2.53 created, 1.32 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- L 1.10 created, 2.62 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
- L 0.30 created, 1.63 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- W 0.76 created, 1.42 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- L 3.25 created, 1.08 conceded against MFK Skalica
- W 1.54 created, 1.04 conceded against KFC Komárno
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +4.3% | Won |
| Draw | 4.00 | +0.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Spartak Trnava | 53.6% | 52.3% | +1.3 pp | 1.87 |
| Draw | 25.8% | 23.5% | +2.3 pp | 3.88 |
| MŠK Žilina | 20.6% | 24.1% | −3.5 pp | 4.85 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | 57.7% | +6.9 pp | 1.55 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.4% | 42.3% | −6.9 pp | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.2% | 78.3% | +6.9 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.8% | 21.7% | −6.9 pp | 6.77 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | 58.2% | +3.6 pp | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.2% | 41.8% | −3.6 pp | 2.62 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Spartak Trnava sample
- 20 matches
- MŠK Žilina sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.