Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 15:30
34d 3h to kick-offFK Železiarne Podbrezová – MFK Ružomberok
Model updated 5 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- 51%
- Draw
- 26%
- MFK Ružomberok
- 23%
| FK Železiarne Podbrezová | Draw | MFK Ružomberok | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.96 | 3.90 | 4.29 |
- Total goals
- 3.26
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Železiarne Podbrezová
51% FK Železiarne Podbrezová to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 7th
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová attack v MFK Ružomberok defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 9th
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová defence v MFK Ružomberok attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.23 vs -0.09
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.94 – 1.32
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová v MFK Ružomberok
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Železiarne Podbrezová | MFK Ružomberok |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.61 · 9th | (better) 1.78 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 2.16 · 10th | (better) 1.84 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -0.54 · 8th | (better) -0.06 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.11 · 8th | (better) 1.38 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.23 | (better) -0.09 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová clean sheet
- 24%
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová 2+ goals
- 60%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 35%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.7%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 2:2
- 7.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová sample
- 20 matches
- MFK Ružomberok sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · MFK Ružomberok
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.