MFK Ružomberok 0:1 Dukla Banská Bystrica: xG & match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

MFK Ružomberok Home 1.95 xG

Dukla Banská Bystrica Away 0.74 xG

01 The result went against the chances

MFK Ružomberok were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. Dukla Banská Bystrica won 1–0. The biggest difference was Dukla Banská Bystrica's attack: 0.74 xG against 1.33 projected (−0.59). MFK Ružomberok produced 1.95 xG against 1.68 projected (+0.27).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

MFK Ružomberok: 44%
Draw: 28%
Dukla Banská Bystrica: 28% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

MFK Ružomberok 1.68 1.95 +0.27

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1.33 0.74 -0.59

Dukla Banská Bystrica produced 0.59 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

MFK Ružomberok Dukla Banská Bystrica

Shots: 19; 11
On target: 5; 2
Inside the box: 13; 7
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.07

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

MFK Ružomberok

1.57 xG created 1.64 xGA

D 1.90 created, 1.48 conceded against 1. FC Tatran Prešov
W 2.05 created, 1.99 conceded against AS Trenčín
L 0.42 created, 0.67 conceded against MFK Skalica
D 2.41 created, 1.21 conceded against DAC 1904
L 1.55 created, 1.95 conceded against MFK Skalica
L 1.11 created, 2.52 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Dukla Banská Bystrica

0.82 xG created 2.74 xGA

L 1.08 created, 1.66 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
L 0.56 created, 3.82 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost

Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on MFK Ružomberok against Dukla Banská Bystrica before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Dukla Banská Bystrica to win	5.00	+39.7%	Won
Both teams to score	1.83	+20.0%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.83	+8.9%	Lost
Draw	3.80	+6.3%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+0.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
MFK Ružomberok	44.1%	56.4%	−12.3 pp	2.27
Draw	28.0%	24.8%	+3.2 pp	3.57
Dukla Banská Bystrica	27.9%	18.8%	+9.1 pp	3.58

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	65.5%	50.0%	+15.5 pp	1.53
Both teams not to score	34.5%	50.0%	−15.5 pp	2.90
Over 1.5 goals	84.1%	76.9%	+7.2 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	15.9%	23.1%	−7.2 pp	6.29
Over 2.5 goals	59.7%	52.0%	+7.7 pp	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	40.3%	48.0%	−7.7 pp	2.48

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
MFK Ružomberok sample: 20 matches
Dukla Banská Bystrica sample: 2 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

Dukla Banská Bystrica has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.