Friday, 06/11/2026 at 17:15
31d 2h to kick-offBotev Plovdiv – FK Dunav Ruse
Model updated 6 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Botev Plovdiv
- 58%
- Draw
- 25%
- FK Dunav Ruse
- 17%
| Botev Plovdiv | Draw | FK Dunav Ruse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.74 | 3.93 | 5.88 |
- Total goals
- 2.94
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Botev Plovdiv
58% Botev Plovdiv to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 11th
- Botev Plovdiv attack v FK Dunav Ruse defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 8th
- Botev Plovdiv defence v FK Dunav Ruse attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.06 vs -1.16
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.91 – 1.02
- Botev Plovdiv v FK Dunav Ruse
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 6 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Botev Plovdiv | FK Dunav Ruse |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.57 · 5th | 1.16 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.01 · 3rd | 2.31 · 14th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.56 · 4th | -1.16 · 14th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.80 · 4th | 0.63 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.06 | -1.16 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Botev Plovdiv clean sheet
- 33%
- Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.7%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 9.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Botev Plovdiv sample
- 20 matches
- FK Dunav Ruse sample
- 6 matches
- Home xG sample · Botev Plovdiv
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Dunav Ruse
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 15:30
Warnings
- FK Dunav Ruse has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.