Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 16:30
7d 14h to kick-offCherno More Varna – Levski Sofia
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Cherno More Varna
- 18%
- Draw
- 31%
- Levski Sofia
- 51%
| Cherno More Varna | Draw | Levski Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 5.59 | 3.21 | 1.96 |
- Total goals
- 2.23
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score
- 48%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 7 outcomes.
-
Cherno More Varna
- Model
- 17.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 14.7%
- Probability gap
- +3.2 pp
- Edge
- +11.8%
- Fair odds
- 5.59
- Market odds
- 6.25 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 5.87
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.0%
-
Draw
- Model
- 31.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 24.1%
- Probability gap
- +7.0 pp
- Edge
- +18.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.21
- Market odds
- 3.80 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.37
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.0%
-
Levski Sofia
- Model
- 50.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 61.2%
- Probability gap
- −10.2 pp
- Edge
- −23.6%
- Fair odds
- 1.96
- Market odds
- 1.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.06
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.0%
Outcomes with value
Levski Sofia not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Levski Sofia at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Cherno More Varna to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Cherno More Varna to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Best opportunity
Levski Sofia not to score
Model 21.2% vs. bookmaker 17.2%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Levski Sofia
51% Levski Sofia to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 9th
- Levski Sofia attack v Cherno More Varna defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 9th
- Levski Sofia defence v Cherno More Varna attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.10 vs -0.36
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.80 – 1.43
- Cherno More Varna v Levski Sofia
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Cherno More Varna | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.05 · 9th | (better) 2.09 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.41 · 9th | (better) 0.73 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.36 · 9th | (better) +1.36 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.11 · 9th | (better) 2.19 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.36 | (better) +1.10 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 40% of the model's distribution.
- Levski Sofia clean sheet
- 42%
- Levski Sofia 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score: no
- 52%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.0%
- 0:1
- 13.1%
- 0:2
- 11.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Cherno More Varna sample
- 20 matches
- Levski Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Cherno More Varna
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Levski Sofia
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.