Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1:0 Cherno More Varna: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Lokomotiv Plovdiv Home 0.51 xG

Cherno More Varna Away 0.88 xG

10 The result went against the chances

Lokomotiv Plovdiv were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Lokomotiv Plovdiv's attack: 0.51 xG against 1.22 projected (−0.71).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 46% What happened
Draw: 34%
Cherno More Varna: 20%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.22 0.51 -0.71

Cherno More Varna 0.76 0.88 +0.12

Lokomotiv Plovdiv produced 0.71 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Lokomotiv Plovdiv Cherno More Varna

Shots: 7; 13
On target: 3; 6
Inside the box: 3; 6
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.07

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.01 xG created 1.14 xGA

L 1.32 created, 0.53 conceded against Cherno More Varna
L 0.50 created, 3.10 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
L 1.91 created, 0.96 conceded against Ludogorets
L 0.80 created, 0.44 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
L 0.64 created, 1.02 conceded against Levski Sofia
L 0.88 created, 0.80 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia

Cherno More Varna

0.85 xG created 1.72 xGA

W 0.53 created, 1.32 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
L 1.15 created, 2.68 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
D 0.55 created, 0.95 conceded against Botev Vratsa
L 1.94 created, 1.60 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
L 0.25 created, 2.29 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
L 0.68 created, 1.50 conceded against Ludogorets

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 0 won · 2 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Lokomotiv Plovdiv against Cherno More Varna before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win	2.70	+23.0%	Won
Draw	3.00	+2.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.50	+2.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	45.6%	34.7%	+10.9 pp	2.20
Draw	34.3%	31.2%	+3.0 pp	2.92
Cherno More Varna	20.2%	34.1%	−13.9 pp	4.96

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	43.2%	46.3%	−3.1 pp	2.31
Both teams not to score	56.8%	53.7%	+3.1 pp	1.76
Over 1.5 goals	63.1%	64.5%	−1.4 pp	1.59
Under 1.5 goals	36.9%	35.5%	+1.4 pp	2.71
Over 2.5 goals	31.7%	37.5%	−5.8 pp	3.15
Under 2.5 goals	68.3%	62.5%	+5.8 pp	1.46

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv sample: 20 matches
Cherno More Varna sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.