Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 19:00
7d 10h to kick-offFC CSKA 1948 Sofia – CSKA Sofia
Model updated 4 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- 27%
- Draw
- 30%
- CSKA Sofia
- 43%
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | Draw | CSKA Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.71 | 3.29 | 2.35 |
- Total goals
- 2.60
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans CSKA Sofia
43% CSKA Sofia to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 8th
- CSKA Sofia attack v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 5th
- CSKA Sofia defence v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.42 vs +0.27
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.14 – 1.46
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia v CSKA Sofia
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.66 · 4th | (better) 2.24 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.31 · 7th | (better) 0.86 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | +0.35 · 5th | (better) +1.38 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.58 · 5th | (better) 2.26 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.27 | (better) +1.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- CSKA Sofia clean sheet
- 29%
- CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.5%
- 1:2
- 10.5%
- 0:1
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- CSKA Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · CSKA Sofia
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.