CSKA Sofia 4:1 Arda Kardzhali: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 20:15

Full time

Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

CSKA Sofia Home 3.10 xG

Arda Kardzhali Away 0.87 xG

41 The scoreline reflected the chances

CSKA Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was CSKA Sofia's attack: 3.10 xG against 1.36 projected (+1.74).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

CSKA Sofia: 44% What happened
Draw: 32%
Arda Kardzhali: 24%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

CSKA Sofia 1.36 3.10 +1.74

Arda Kardzhali 0.97 0.87 -0.10

CSKA Sofia produced 1.74 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

CSKA Sofia Arda Kardzhali

Shots: 19; 8
On target: 9; 5
Inside the box: 13; 4
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.11

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

CSKA Sofia

1.54 xG created 1.16 xGA

D 0.58 created, 1.49 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
L 0.27 created, 1.59 conceded against Levski Sofia
D 1.53 created, 0.37 conceded against Slavia Sofia
W 1.54 created, 2.39 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
W 1.81 created, 0.34 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
D 3.50 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Spartak Varna

Arda Kardzhali

1.95 xG created 0.81 xGA

W 3.10 created, 0.50 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
D 0.66 created, 1.39 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
W 2.57 created, 0.00 conceded against Slavia Sofia
L 1.84 created, 1.05 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
W 2.59 created, 1.20 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
W 0.91 created, 0.71 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

CSKA Sofia: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged2 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on CSKA Sofia against Arda Kardzhali before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Arda Kardzhali to win	4.75	+12.9%	Lost
Draw	3.50	+12.3%	Lost
CSKA Sofia at most 1 goal	1.83	+9.0%	Lost
Arda Kardzhali to score	1.67	+8.8%	Won
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals	4.33	+8.8%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.00	+4.6%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.80	+4.4%	Lost
CSKA Sofia not to score	4.50	+2.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
CSKA Sofia	44.1%	53.5%	−9.4 pp	2.27
Draw	32.1%	26.8%	+5.3 pp	3.12
Arda Kardzhali	23.8%	19.7%	+4.0 pp	4.21

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
CSKA Sofia to score	77.2%	79.2%	−2.0 pp	1.30
CSKA Sofia not to score	22.8%	20.8%	+2.0 pp	4.38
Arda Kardzhali to score	65.3%	55.7%	+9.5 pp	1.53
Arda Kardzhali not to score	34.7%	44.3%	−9.5 pp	2.88
Both teams to score	52.3%	46.3%	+6.0 pp	1.91
Both teams not to score	47.7%	53.7%	−6.0 pp	2.10
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals	40.6%	50.0%	−9.4 pp	2.47
CSKA Sofia at most 1 goal	59.4%	50.0%	+9.4 pp	1.68
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals	25.1%	21.7%	+3.4 pp	3.98
Arda Kardzhali at most 1 goal	74.9%	78.3%	−3.4 pp	1.34
Over 1.5 goals	72.1%	72.3%	−0.2 pp	1.39
Under 1.5 goals	27.9%	27.7%	+0.2 pp	3.59
Over 2.5 goals	42.0%	47.4%	−5.4 pp	2.38
Under 2.5 goals	58.0%	52.6%	+5.4 pp	1.72

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
CSKA Sofia sample: 20 matches
Arda Kardzhali sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.