Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 17:00
31d 12h to kick-offFK Dunav Ruse – Levski Sofia
Model updated 7 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Dunav Ruse
- 14%
- Draw
- 26%
- Levski Sofia
- 60%
| FK Dunav Ruse | Draw | Levski Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 7.13 | 3.85 | 1.67 |
- Total goals
- 2.65
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Levski Sofia
60% Levski Sofia to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 11th
- Levski Sofia attack v FK Dunav Ruse defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 8th
- Levski Sofia defence v FK Dunav Ruse attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.10 vs -1.16
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.84 – 1.81
- FK Dunav Ruse v Levski Sofia
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 6 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Dunav Ruse | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.16 · 7th | (better) 2.09 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 2.31 · 14th | (better) 0.73 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -1.16 · 14th | (better) +1.36 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 0.63 · 14th | (better) 2.19 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.16 | (better) +1.10 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Levski Sofia clean sheet
- 41%
- Levski Sofia 2+ goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.4%
- 0:2
- 11.9%
- 1:2
- 11.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Dunav Ruse sample
- 6 matches
- Levski Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Dunav Ruse
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Levski Sofia
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 03:30
Warnings
- FK Dunav Ruse has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.