Friday, 04/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeFK Septemvri Sofia 2:3 Botev Vratsa
A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 37%. Botev Vratsa won 3–2. The biggest difference was FK Septemvri Sofia's attack: 1.37 xG against 0.95 projected (+0.42).
The model against the result
- FK Septemvri Sofia
- 34%
- Draw
- 37%
- Botev Vratsa
- 28% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Septemvri Sofia produced 0.42 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 7
- On target
- 7
- 6
- Inside the box
- 7
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.14
Recent form
0.86 xG created 0.96 xGA
- W 1.15 created, 0.52 conceded against Beroe Stara Zagora
- D 1.39 created, 0.66 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- L 0.12 created, 2.38 conceded against Levski Sofia
- W 1.04 created, 0.73 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- W 0.49 created, 1.03 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- D 0.95 created, 0.46 conceded against Slavia Sofia
1.00 xG created 1.43 xGA
- W 1.24 created, 1.54 conceded against FK Dobrudzha Dobrich
- D 0.95 created, 0.55 conceded against Cherno More Varna
- L 1.16 created, 0.89 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- L 1.17 created, 3.72 conceded against Ludogorets
- L 0.93 created, 1.09 conceded against Slavia Sofia
- W 0.54 created, 0.77 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.20 | +19.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.57 | +15.3% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 2.63 | +10.4% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 1.73 | +2.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Septemvri Sofia | 34.2% | 38.2% | −4.0 pp | 2.92 |
| Draw | 37.4% | 29.2% | +8.2 pp | 2.67 |
| Botev Vratsa | 28.3% | 32.6% | −4.2 pp | 3.53 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 40.9% | 46.3% | −5.4 pp | 2.44 |
| Both teams not to score | 59.1% | 53.7% | +5.4 pp | 1.69 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.9% | 64.5% | −6.6 pp | 1.73 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 42.1% | 35.5% | +6.6 pp | 2.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26.6% | 40.1% | −13.5 pp | 3.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 73.4% | 59.9% | +13.5 pp | 1.36 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Septemvri Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Botev Vratsa sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.