Monday, 24/08/2026 at 20:15
Full timeLokomotiv Plovdiv 0:1 Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. Arda Kardzhali won 1–0.
The model against the result
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 36%
- Draw
- 36%
- Arda Kardzhali
- 28% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
0.99 xG created 1.17 xGA
- W 0.75 created, 0.96 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- L 1.32 created, 0.53 conceded against Cherno More Varna
- L 0.50 created, 3.10 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- L 1.91 created, 0.96 conceded against Ludogorets
- L 0.80 created, 0.44 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- L 0.64 created, 1.02 conceded against Levski Sofia
1.95 xG created 0.81 xGA
- W 3.10 created, 0.50 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- D 0.66 created, 1.39 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
- W 2.57 created, 0.00 conceded against Slavia Sofia
- L 1.84 created, 1.05 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- W 2.59 created, 1.20 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
- W 0.91 created, 0.71 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win | 3.40 | +22.5% | Lost |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals | 3.75 | +9.5% | Lost |
| Arda Kardzhali not to score | 3.00 | +8.6% | Lost |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv to score | 1.57 | +8.0% | Lost |
| Arda Kardzhali at most 1 goal | 1.40 | +6.8% | Won |
| Draw | 3.00 | +6.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 36.0% | 27.7% | +8.4 pp | 2.77 |
| Draw | 35.6% | 31.4% | +4.2 pp | 2.81 |
| Arda Kardzhali | 28.4% | 40.9% | −12.5 pp | 3.52 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv to score | 68.8% | 58.9% | +9.9 pp | 1.45 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv not to score | 31.2% | 41.1% | −9.9 pp | 3.20 |
| Arda Kardzhali to score | 63.8% | 68.7% | −5.0 pp | 1.57 |
| Arda Kardzhali not to score | 36.2% | 31.3% | +5.0 pp | 2.76 |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | 44.3% | +1.7 pp | 2.18 |
| Both teams not to score | 54.1% | 55.7% | −1.7 pp | 1.85 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals | 29.2% | 25.0% | +4.2 pp | 3.42 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv at most 1 goal | 70.8% | 75.0% | −4.2 pp | 1.41 |
| Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals | 23.7% | 33.7% | −10.0 pp | 4.22 |
| Arda Kardzhali at most 1 goal | 76.3% | 66.3% | +10.0 pp | 1.31 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.9% | 62.5% | +1.4 pp | 1.56 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 37.5% | −1.4 pp | 2.77 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.4% | 36.2% | −3.7 pp | 3.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 67.6% | 63.8% | +3.7 pp | 1.48 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv sample
- 20 matches
- Arda Kardzhali sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.