Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 17:00
20d 10h to kick-offLokomotiv Plovdiv – Slavia Sofia
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 54%
- Draw
- 30%
- Slavia Sofia
- 16%
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Draw | Slavia Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.85 | 3.29 | 6.42 |
- Total goals
- 2.19
- Over 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score
- 45%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Lokomotiv Plovdiv
54% Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 13th
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack v Slavia Sofia defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 14th
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence v Slavia Sofia attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.19 vs -0.79
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.46 – 0.73
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Slavia Sofia
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Slavia Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.02 · 11th | 0.75 · 14th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.14 · 5th | 1.60 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.12 · 7th | -0.85 · 11th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.24 · 7th | 0.80 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.19 | -0.79 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 42% of the model's distribution.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv clean sheet
- 46%
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score: no
- 55%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.4%
- 1:0
- 14.3%
- 2:0
- 12.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv sample
- 20 matches
- Slavia Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Slavia Sofia
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.