Lokomotiv Sofia 1:2 Ludogorets: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 20:15

Full time

Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Lokomotiv Sofia Home 0.75 xG

Ludogorets Away 3.62 xG

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Ludogorets were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Ludogorets's attack: 3.62 xG against 1.76 projected (+1.86). Lokomotiv Sofia produced 0.75 xG against 1.05 projected (−0.30).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Lokomotiv Sofia: 20%
Draw: 27%
Ludogorets: 53% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1.05 0.75 -0.30

Ludogorets 1.76 3.62 +1.86

Ludogorets produced 1.86 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Lokomotiv Sofia Ludogorets

Shots: 8; 17
On target: 2; 5
Inside the box: 3; 10
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.21

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.08 xG created 1.89 xGA

D 0.53 created, 2.29 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
L 0.53 created, 2.43 conceded against Levski Sofia
D 0.91 created, 0.60 conceded against Slavia Sofia
L 1.64 created, 2.54 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
L 0.71 created, 0.91 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
D 2.14 created, 2.57 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse

Ludogorets

1.89 xG created 1.41 xGA

L 0.46 created, 3.06 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
W 0.96 created, 1.91 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
W 2.12 created, 0.81 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
W 3.72 created, 1.17 conceded against Botev Vratsa
W 1.50 created, 0.68 conceded against Cherno More Varna
W 2.58 created, 0.81 conceded against Botev Plovdiv

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Lokomotiv Sofia: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Lokomotiv Sofia against Ludogorets before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.85	+9.8%	Won
Lokomotiv Sofia to win	5.50	+8.0%	Lost
Draw	3.80	+3.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Sofia	19.6%	16.4%	+3.3 pp	5.09
Draw	27.3%	23.7%	+3.7 pp	3.66
Ludogorets	53.0%	60.0%	−6.9 pp	1.89

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.4%	50.0%	+9.4 pp	1.68
Both teams not to score	40.6%	50.0%	−9.4 pp	2.46
Over 1.5 goals	81.0%	75.4%	+5.6 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	19.0%	24.6%	−5.6 pp	5.27
Over 2.5 goals	54.8%	53.7%	+1.1 pp	1.83
Under 2.5 goals	45.2%	46.3%	−1.1 pp	2.21

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Lokomotiv Sofia sample: 20 matches
Ludogorets sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.