Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 17:00
33d 0h to kick-offLudogorets – FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
Model updated 5 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Ludogorets
- 52%
- Draw
- 28%
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- 20%
| Ludogorets | Draw | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.91 | 3.58 | 5.03 |
- Total goals
- 2.74
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Ludogorets
52% Ludogorets to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 8th
- Ludogorets attack v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 5th
- Ludogorets defence v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.39 vs +0.27
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.71 – 1.03
- Ludogorets v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Ludogorets | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.42 · 1st | 1.66 · 4th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.02 · 4th | 1.31 · 7th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.39 · 1st | +0.35 · 5th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.19 · 2nd | 1.58 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.40 | +0.27 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Ludogorets clean sheet
- 33%
- Ludogorets 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.2%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 9.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Ludogorets sample
- 20 matches
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Ludogorets
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 15:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.