Expected goals
PFK Montana 1921 expected goals (xG) 2025/2026
Parva Liga (Bulgaria) · after 35 matches · updated 4 Oct
PFK Montana 1921's attacking and defensive expected goals in Parva Liga (Bulgaria) 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.
PFK Montana 1921 xG and xGA per match
Every match ↓| Rank | Club | xG per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Ludogorets | 1.91 |
| #2 | Levski Sofia | 1.87 |
| #3 | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1.57 |
| #4 | CSKA Sofia | 1.50 |
| #5 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 1.35 |
| #6 | Botev Plovdiv | 1.31 |
| #7 | Cherno More Varna | 1.28 |
| #8 | Arda Kardzhali | 1.26 |
| #9 | Slavia Sofia | 1.16 |
| #10 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1.15 |
| #11 | Beroe Stara Zagora | 1.09 |
| #12 | FK Septemvri Sofia | 1.08 |
| #13 | Botev Vratsa | 1.06 |
| #14 | FK Dobrudzha Dobrich | 1.04 |
| #15 | PFK Montana 1921 | 0.97 |
| #16 | FK Spartak Varna | 0.90 |
- League avg
- 1.28
- Total
- 34.05 35 matches
| Rank | Club | xGA per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Levski Sofia | 0.70 |
| #2 | Ludogorets | 0.73 |
| #3 | Arda Kardzhali | 0.96 |
| #4 | CSKA Sofia | 0.96 |
| #5 | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1.09 |
| #6 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1.16 |
| #7 | Botev Vratsa | 1.22 |
| #8 | FK Dobrudzha Dobrich | 1.27 |
| #9 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 1.30 |
| #10 | Cherno More Varna | 1.34 |
| #11 | Botev Plovdiv | 1.39 |
| #12 | PFK Montana 1921 | 1.46 |
| #13 | Slavia Sofia | 1.56 |
| #14 | Beroe Stara Zagora | 1.67 |
| #15 | FK Septemvri Sofia | 1.79 |
| #16 | FK Spartak Varna | 1.79 |
- League avg
- 1.28
- Total
- 50.98 35 matches
| Rank | Club | xGD per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Ludogorets | +1.19 |
| #2 | Levski Sofia | +1.17 |
| #3 | CSKA Sofia | +0.54 |
| #4 | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | +0.48 |
| #5 | Arda Kardzhali | +0.30 |
| #6 | Lokomotiv Sofia | +0.06 |
| #7 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | -0.01 |
| #8 | Cherno More Varna | -0.06 |
| #9 | Botev Plovdiv | -0.08 |
| #10 | Botev Vratsa | -0.16 |
| #11 | FK Dobrudzha Dobrich | -0.24 |
| #12 | Slavia Sofia | -0.41 |
| #13 | PFK Montana 1921 | -0.48 |
| #14 | Beroe Stara Zagora | -0.58 |
| #15 | FK Septemvri Sofia | -0.71 |
| #16 | FK Spartak Varna | -0.89 |
- League avg
- 0.00
- Total
- -16.93 35 matches
| Rank | Club | xPts per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Ludogorets | 2.19 |
| #2 | Levski Sofia | 2.12 |
| #3 | CSKA Sofia | 1.71 |
| #4 | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1.69 |
| #5 | Arda Kardzhali | 1.56 |
| #6 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1.41 |
| #7 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 1.41 |
| #8 | Botev Plovdiv | 1.30 |
| #9 | Botev Vratsa | 1.29 |
| #10 | Cherno More Varna | 1.24 |
| #11 | FK Dobrudzha Dobrich | 1.19 |
| #12 | Slavia Sofia | 1.12 |
| #13 | PFK Montana 1921 | 1.07 |
| #14 | Beroe Stara Zagora | 1.02 |
| #15 | FK Septemvri Sofia | 0.94 |
| #16 | FK Spartak Varna | 0.84 |
- League avg
- 1.38
- Total
- 37.41 vs 23 actual pts
Expected goals here are summed over 35 of 36 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.
What the xG says
PFK Montana 1921's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Parva Liga (Bulgaria). They rank #13 for xG difference at -0.48 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 21 goals are 13.05 below 34.05 xG, while 23 points are 14.41 below 37.41 xPts — both over the 35 matches with xG.
Actual vs expected
Select a row to chart it across the season.
Goals minus xG, match by match
PFK Montana 1921 are 13.05 goals below their xG after 35 matches. The gap was widest at -13.87, against FK Septemvri Sofia on Fri 01/05.
- Goals
- 21
- xG
- 34.05
- Gap
- -13.05
- This match
- Match gap
- Running gap
| Date | Opponent | Goals | xG | Match gap | Running gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 20/07 | Levski Sofia | 0 | 1.09 | -1.09 | -1.09 |
| Mon 28/07 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1 | 0.39 | +0.61 | -0.48 |
| Sun 03/08 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 0 | 1.68 | -1.68 | -2.16 |
| Fri 08/08 | Botev Vratsa | 0 | 0.51 | -0.51 | -2.67 |
| Fri 15/08 | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1 | 0.30 | +0.70 | -1.97 |
| Sat 23/08 | FK Septemvri Sofia | 2 | 1.88 | +0.12 | -1.85 |
| Fri 29/08 | FK Dobrudzha Dobrich | 1 | 1.88 | -0.88 | -2.73 |
| Fri 12/09 | Botev Plovdiv | 1 | 0.81 | +0.19 | -2.54 |
| Fri 19/09 | FK Spartak Varna | 1 | 2.79 | -1.79 | -4.33 |
| Sun 28/09 | Ludogorets | 0 | 0.31 | -0.31 | -4.64 |
| Sat 04/10 | Cherno More Varna | 1 | 1.17 | -0.17 | -4.81 |
| Mon 20/10 | Beroe Stara Zagora | 1 | 1.58 | -0.58 | -5.39 |
| Fri 24/10 | Arda Kardzhali | 1 | 0.57 | +0.43 | -4.96 |
| Sun 02/11 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0.23 | +0.77 | -4.19 |
| Sun 09/11 | Slavia Sofia | 1 | 2.09 | -1.09 | -5.28 |
| Sun 23/11 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0.67 | +0.33 | -4.95 |
| Fri 28/11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0 | 0.16 | -0.16 | -5.11 |
| Tue 02/12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 1 | 1.01 | -0.01 | -5.12 |
| Tue 09/12 | Botev Vratsa | 0 | 0.57 | -0.57 | -5.69 |
| Fri 06/02 | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | 0 | 0.38 | -0.38 | -6.07 |
| Mon 16/02 | FK Septemvri Sofia | 0 | 1.34 | -1.34 | -7.41 |
| Sat 21/02 | FK Dobrudzha Dobrich | 0 | 0.46 | -0.46 | -7.87 |
| Fri 27/02 | Botev Plovdiv | 0 | 0.87 | -0.87 | -8.74 |
| Tue 03/03 | FK Spartak Varna | 0 | 0.38 | -0.38 | -9.12 |
| Mon 09/03 | Ludogorets | 0 | 0.47 | -0.47 | -9.59 |
| Sun 15/03 | Cherno More Varna | 0 | 0.77 | -0.77 | -10.36 |
| Sun 22/03 | Beroe Stara Zagora | 0 | 0.88 | -0.88 | -11.24 |
| Sat 04/04 | Arda Kardzhali | 1 | 1.28 | -0.28 | -11.52 |
| Thu 16/04 | Slavia Sofia | 0 | 1.34 | -1.34 | -12.86 |
| Mon 27/04 | FK Dobrudzha Dobrich | 1 | 1.67 | -0.67 | -13.53 |
| Fri 01/05 | FK Septemvri Sofia | 1 | 1.34 | -0.34 | -13.87 |
| Tue 05/05 | Beroe Stara Zagora | 2 | 1.23 | +0.77 | -13.10 |
| Sat 09/05 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 2 | 1.68 | +0.32 | -12.78 |
| Thu 14/05 | Botev Vratsa | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | -12.78 |
| Mon 18/05 | FK Spartak Varna | 0 | 0.27 | -0.27 | -13.05 |
PFK Montana 1921 xG trend
Current form -0.70 npxGD per match
The last 6 matches with xG.
Out-created the opponent in 13 of 35 matches. The worst was against FK Spartak Varna on Mon 18/05 (-3.41).
- npxG · last 6
- 0.91
- npxGA · last 6
- 1.61
- npxG
- npxGA
- npxGD
- Avg so far
| Date | Opponent | npxG | npxGA | npxGD | Avg so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 20/07 | Levski Sofia | 1.09 | 3.10 | -2.01 | -2.01 |
| Mon 28/07 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0.39 | 1.05 | -0.66 | -1.34 |
| Sun 03/08 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 1.68 | 1.37 | +0.31 | -0.79 |
| Fri 08/08 | Botev Vratsa | 0.51 | 1.61 | -1.10 | -0.87 |
| Fri 15/08 | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | 0.30 | 1.71 | -1.41 | -0.97 |
| Sat 23/08 | FK Septemvri Sofia | 1.89 | 0.75 | +1.14 | -0.62 |
| Fri 29/08 | FK Dobrudzha Dobrich | 1.12 | 1.00 | +0.12 | -0.52 |
| Fri 12/09 | Botev Plovdiv | 0.81 | 0.67 | +0.14 | -0.43 |
| Fri 19/09 | FK Spartak Varna | 2.89 | 0.62 | +2.27 | -0.13 |
| Sun 28/09 | Ludogorets | 0.31 | 2.81 | -2.50 | -0.37 |
| Sat 04/10 | Cherno More Varna | 1.17 | 1.27 | -0.10 | -0.35 |
| Mon 20/10 | Beroe Stara Zagora | 1.58 | 0.26 | +1.32 | -0.21 |
| Fri 24/10 | Arda Kardzhali | 0.57 | 0.68 | -0.11 | -0.20 |
| Sun 02/11 | CSKA Sofia | 0.23 | 2.79 | -2.56 | -0.37 |
| Sun 09/11 | Slavia Sofia | 2.10 | 2.01 | +0.09 | -0.34 |
| Sun 23/11 | Levski Sofia | 0.67 | 1.74 | -1.07 | -0.38 |
| Fri 28/11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0.16 | 1.12 | -0.96 | -0.42 |
| Tue 02/12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 1.01 | 0.81 | +0.20 | -0.38 |
| Tue 09/12 | Botev Vratsa | 0.57 | 1.50 | -0.93 | -0.41 |
| Fri 06/02 | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | 0.50 | 0.58 | -0.08 | -0.39 |
| Mon 16/02 | FK Septemvri Sofia | 1.34 | 0.84 | +0.50 | -0.35 |
| Sat 21/02 | FK Dobrudzha Dobrich | 0.46 | 0.93 | -0.47 | -0.36 |
| Fri 27/02 | Botev Plovdiv | 0.87 | 1.14 | -0.27 | -0.35 |
| Tue 03/03 | FK Spartak Varna | 0.38 | 1.06 | -0.68 | -0.37 |
| Mon 09/03 | Ludogorets | 0.47 | 2.41 | -1.94 | -0.43 |
| Sun 15/03 | Cherno More Varna | 0.77 | 0.29 | +0.48 | -0.40 |
| Sun 22/03 | Beroe Stara Zagora | 0.88 | 0.96 | -0.08 | -0.38 |
| Sat 04/04 | Arda Kardzhali | 1.28 | 1.36 | -0.08 | -0.37 |
| Thu 16/04 | Slavia Sofia | 1.34 | 0.92 | +0.42 | -0.35 |
| Mon 27/04 | FK Dobrudzha Dobrich | 1.67 | 1.10 | +0.57 | -0.31 |
| Fri 01/05 | FK Septemvri Sofia | 0.58 | 0.76 | -0.18 | -0.31 |
| Tue 05/05 | Beroe Stara Zagora | 1.24 | 1.02 | +0.22 | -0.29 |
| Sat 09/05 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 1.69 | 2.73 | -1.04 | -0.32 |
| Thu 14/05 | Botev Vratsa | 0.01 | 0.39 | -0.38 | -0.32 |
| Mon 18/05 | FK Spartak Varna | 0.27 | 3.68 | -3.41 | -0.41 |
Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.94 npxG and 1.34 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.
Strength of schedule
- Season so far
- tied number 12 hardest of 16 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
- −0.05 xG vs league average
- Over 36 league matches
- Last 5
- number 13 hardest of 15 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
- −0.37 xG vs league average
- Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures
Season so far
−0.05 xG vs league average · over 36 matches · tied number 12 hardest of 16
- Slavia Sofia Away −0.59
- FK Spartak Varna Home −0.63
- Botev Vratsa Away −0.14
- Lokomotiv Sofia Home −0.07
- Beroe Stara Zagora Away −0.43
- FK Septemvri Sofia Away −0.31
- FK Dobrudzha Dobrich Home −0.06
- Slavia Sofia Home −0.59
- Arda Kardzhali Away +0.17
- Beroe Stara Zagora Home −0.43
- Cherno More Varna Away −0.20
- Ludogorets Home +0.85
- FK Spartak Varna Away −0.63
- Botev Plovdiv Home +0.23
- FK Dobrudzha Dobrich Away −0.06
- FK Septemvri Sofia Away −0.31
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia Home +0.36
- Botev Vratsa Away −0.14
- Lokomotiv Sofia Home −0.07
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv Away +0.02
- Levski Sofia Home +0.69
- Slavia Sofia Away −0.59
- CSKA Sofia Away +0.54
- Arda Kardzhali Home +0.17
- Beroe Stara Zagora Away −0.43
- Cherno More Varna Home −0.20
- Ludogorets Away +0.85
- FK Spartak Varna Home −0.63
- Botev Plovdiv Away +0.23
- FK Dobrudzha Dobrich Home −0.06
- FK Septemvri Sofia Home −0.31
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia Away +0.36
- Botev Vratsa Home −0.14
- Lokomotiv Sofia Away −0.07
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv Home +0.02
- Levski Sofia Away +0.69
Last 5
−0.37 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 13 hardest of 15
- Slavia Sofia Away −0.59
- FK Spartak Varna Home −0.63
- Botev Vratsa Away −0.14
- Lokomotiv Sofia Home −0.07
- Beroe Stara Zagora Away −0.43
PFK Montana 1921 shots and chance quality
Low volume, average quality. PFK Montana 1921 take 9.1 shots a match (league 11.4) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #14 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria) for volume and #11 for quality. 44% of their shots come from inside the box (league 56%).
Attack
| Rank | Club | shots per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Ludogorets | 15.9 |
| #2 | CSKA Sofia | 15.4 |
| #3 | Levski Sofia | 15.2 |
| #4 | Botev Plovdiv | 13.0 |
| #5 | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | 11.7 |
| #6 | Slavia Sofia | 11.5 |
| #7 | Arda Kardzhali | 11.0 |
| #8 | Cherno More Varna | 10.9 |
| #9 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10.8 |
| #10 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10.5 |
| #11 | FK Dobrudzha Dobrich | 10.4 |
| #12 | Beroe Stara Zagora | 9.5 |
| #13 | Botev Vratsa | 9.4 |
| #14 | PFK Montana 1921 | 9.1 |
| =15 | FK Septemvri Sofia | 8.9 |
| =15 | FK Spartak Varna | 8.9 |
- League avg
- 11.4
- Total
- 317 shots from 35 matches
| Rank | Club | npxG per shot |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | 0.12 |
| #2 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 0.12 |
| #3 | Arda Kardzhali | 0.11 |
| #4 | Levski Sofia | 0.11 |
| #5 | FK Septemvri Sofia | 0.11 |
| #6 | Beroe Stara Zagora | 0.11 |
| #7 | Ludogorets | 0.11 |
| #8 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0.11 |
| #9 | Cherno More Varna | 0.11 |
| #10 | Botev Vratsa | 0.11 |
| #11 | PFK Montana 1921 | 0.10 |
| #12 | FK Dobrudzha Dobrich | 0.10 |
| #13 | Botev Plovdiv | 0.09 |
| #14 | Slavia Sofia | 0.09 |
| #15 | CSKA Sofia | 0.09 |
| #16 | FK Spartak Varna | 0.09 |
- League avg
- 0.10
- Total
- 32.80 npxG from 317 shots
Defence
| Rank | Club | shots per match |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Levski Sofia | 7.2 |
| #2 | Ludogorets | 7.6 |
| #3 | CSKA Sofia | 8.3 |
| #4 | Arda Kardzhali | 9.5 |
| #5 | FK Dobrudzha Dobrich | 9.5 |
| #6 | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | 10.6 |
| #7 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10.9 |
| #8 | Botev Vratsa | 11.1 |
| #9 | Cherno More Varna | 11.4 |
| #10 | PFK Montana 1921 | 11.4 |
| #11 | Botev Plovdiv | 11.8 |
| #12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 12.1 |
| #13 | FK Septemvri Sofia | 13.4 |
| #14 | Slavia Sofia | 14.8 |
| #15 | FK Spartak Varna | 15.6 |
| #16 | Beroe Stara Zagora | 16.1 |
- League avg
- 11.4
- Total
- 400 shots allowed from 35 matches
| Rank | Club | npxGA per shot |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | 0.09 |
| #2 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0.09 |
| #3 | Levski Sofia | 0.10 |
| #4 | Ludogorets | 0.10 |
| #5 | Arda Kardzhali | 0.10 |
| #6 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 0.10 |
| #7 | Beroe Stara Zagora | 0.10 |
| #8 | Slavia Sofia | 0.10 |
| #9 | Botev Plovdiv | 0.10 |
| #10 | Botev Vratsa | 0.10 |
| #11 | CSKA Sofia | 0.11 |
| #12 | FK Spartak Varna | 0.11 |
| #13 | Cherno More Varna | 0.11 |
| #14 | PFK Montana 1921 | 0.12 |
| #15 | FK Septemvri Sofia | 0.12 |
| #16 | FK Dobrudzha Dobrich | 0.12 |
- League avg
- 0.10
- Total
- 47.04 npxGA from 400 shots
Shot profile
44% inside the box
League avg 56%
From 140 of 317 shots over 35 matches
59% allowed inside the box
League avg 56%
From 237 of 400 shots allowed over 35 matches
PFK Montana 1921 home and away xG
| Measure | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 17 | 19 18 with xG |
| xG / match | 1.08 | 0.87 |
| xGA / match | 1.53 | 1.39 |
| xGD / match | -0.44 | -0.52 |
| xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → | 1.12 | 1.02 |
Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.
Every PFK Montana 1921 match by xG
Last 10
- Matches
- 10 9 with xG
- xG / match
- 1.08
- xGA / match
- 1.52
- xGD / match
- -0.44
- Points
- 7 of 30
- Fri 22/05 Slavia Sofia A
- Mon 18/05 FK Spartak Varna H Weakest underlying xG 0.27 xGA 3.68 xGD -3.41 xPts 0.03
- Thu 14/05 Botev Vratsa A xG 0.00 xGA 0.39 xGD -0.39 xPts 0.61
- Sat 09/05 Lokomotiv Sofia H xG 1.68 xGA 2.73 xGD -1.05 xPts 0.74
- Tue 05/05 Beroe Stara Zagora A xG 1.23 xGA 1.02 xGD +0.21 xPts 1.52
- Fri 01/05 FK Septemvri Sofia A Best underlying xG 1.34 P xGA 0.76 xGD +0.58 xPts 1.86
- Mon 27/04 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich H xG 1.67 xGA 1.10 xGD +0.57 xPts 1.82
- Thu 16/04 Slavia Sofia H xG 1.34 xGA 0.92 xGD +0.42 xPts 1.72
- Sat 04/04 Arda Kardzhali A xG 1.28 xGA 1.36 xGD -0.08 xPts 1.28
- Sun 22/03 Beroe Stara Zagora H xG 0.88 xGA 1.72 P xGD -0.84 xPts 0.71
Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.68. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.
PFK Montana 1921 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
Attack
- xG / match #15 of 16
- Shots / match #14 of 16
- Chance quality #11 of 16
- Home xG #13 of 17
- Away xG #15 of 17
Defence
- xGA / match #12 of 16
- Shots allowed #10 of 16
- Chance quality allowed #14 of 16
About the data
- xG data
- Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
- Derived metrics
- xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
- Model metrics
- xPts is produced by our probability model.