xgEdge

Expected goals

PFK Montana 1921 expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Parva Liga (Bulgaria) · after 35 matches · updated 4 Oct

PFK Montana 1921's attacking and defensive expected goals in Parva Liga (Bulgaria) 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

PFK Montana 1921 xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.97 xG per match
#15/16
Attack (xG per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Ludogorets 1.91
#2 Levski Sofia 1.87
#3 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.57
#4 CSKA Sofia 1.50
#5 Lokomotiv Sofia 1.35
#6 Botev Plovdiv 1.31
#7 Cherno More Varna 1.28
#8 Arda Kardzhali 1.26
#9 Slavia Sofia 1.16
#10 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.15
#11 Beroe Stara Zagora 1.09
#12 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.08
#13 Botev Vratsa 1.06
#14 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 1.04
#15 PFK Montana 1921 0.97
#16 FK Spartak Varna 0.90
League avg
1.28
Total
34.05 35 matches
Defence
1.46 xGA per match
#12/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Levski Sofia 0.70
#2 Ludogorets 0.73
#3 Arda Kardzhali 0.96
#4 CSKA Sofia 0.96
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.09
#6 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.16
#7 Botev Vratsa 1.22
#8 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 1.27
#9 Lokomotiv Sofia 1.30
#10 Cherno More Varna 1.34
#11 Botev Plovdiv 1.39
#12 PFK Montana 1921 1.46
#13 Slavia Sofia 1.56
#14 Beroe Stara Zagora 1.67
#15 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.79
#16 FK Spartak Varna 1.79
League avg
1.28
Total
50.98 35 matches
xG difference
-0.48 xGD per match
#13/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Ludogorets +1.19
#2 Levski Sofia +1.17
#3 CSKA Sofia +0.54
#4 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia +0.48
#5 Arda Kardzhali +0.30
#6 Lokomotiv Sofia +0.06
#7 Lokomotiv Plovdiv -0.01
#8 Cherno More Varna -0.06
#9 Botev Plovdiv -0.08
#10 Botev Vratsa -0.16
#11 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich -0.24
#12 Slavia Sofia -0.41
#13 PFK Montana 1921 -0.48
#14 Beroe Stara Zagora -0.58
#15 FK Septemvri Sofia -0.71
#16 FK Spartak Varna -0.89
League avg
0.00
Total
-16.93 35 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.07 xPts per match
#13/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Ludogorets 2.19
#2 Levski Sofia 2.12
#3 CSKA Sofia 1.71
#4 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.69
#5 Arda Kardzhali 1.56
#6 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.41
#7 Lokomotiv Sofia 1.41
#8 Botev Plovdiv 1.30
#9 Botev Vratsa 1.29
#10 Cherno More Varna 1.24
#11 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 1.19
#12 Slavia Sofia 1.12
#13 PFK Montana 1921 1.07
#14 Beroe Stara Zagora 1.02
#15 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.94
#16 FK Spartak Varna 0.84
League avg
1.38
Total
37.41 vs 23 actual pts

Expected goals here are summed over 35 of 36 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

PFK Montana 1921's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Parva Liga (Bulgaria). They rank #13 for xG difference at -0.48 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 21 goals are 13.05 below 34.05 xG, while 23 points are 14.41 below 37.41 xPts — both over the 35 matches with xG.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.25 xG from penalties
21 34.05 -13.05 scored 13.05 fewer than xG far outside normal variance
52 50.98 +1.02 conceded 1.02 more than xGA within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

PFK Montana 1921 are 13.05 goals below their xG after 35 matches. The gap was widest at -13.87, against FK Septemvri Sofia on Fri 01/05.

Goals
21
xG
34.05
Gap
-13.05
Sun 20/07 Mon 28/07 Sun 03/08 Fri 08/08 Fri 15/08 Sat 23/08 Fri 29/08 Fri 12/09 Fri 19/09 Sun 28/09 Sat 04/10 Mon 20/10 Fri 24/10 Sun 02/11 Sun 09/11 Sun 23/11 Fri 28/11 Tue 02/12 Tue 09/12 Fri 06/02 Mon 16/02 Sat 21/02 Fri 27/02 Tue 03/03 Mon 09/03 Sun 15/03 Sun 22/03 Sat 04/04 Thu 16/04 Mon 27/04 Fri 01/05 Tue 05/05 Sat 09/05 Thu 14/05 Mon 18/05 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 -1.09 -0.48 -2.16 -2.67 -1.97 -1.85 -2.73 -2.54 -4.33 -4.64 -4.81 -5.39 -4.96 -4.19 -5.28 -4.95 -5.11 -5.12 -5.69 -6.07 -7.41 -7.87 -8.74 -9.12 -9.59 -10.36 -11.24 -11.52 -12.86 -13.53 -13.87 -13.10 -12.78 -12.78 -13.05 -1.09 +0.61 -1.68 -0.51 +0.70 +0.12 -0.88 +0.19 -1.79 -0.31 -0.17 -0.58 +0.43 +0.77 -1.09 +0.33 -0.16 -0.01 -0.57 -0.38 -1.34 -0.46 -0.87 -0.38 -0.47 -0.77 -0.88 -0.28 -1.34 -0.67 -0.34 +0.77 +0.32 +0.00 -0.27 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
PFK Montana 1921: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 20/07 Levski Sofia 0 1.09 -1.09 -1.09
Mon 28/07 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1 0.39 +0.61 -0.48
Sun 03/08 Lokomotiv Sofia 0 1.68 -1.68 -2.16
Fri 08/08 Botev Vratsa 0 0.51 -0.51 -2.67
Fri 15/08 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1 0.30 +0.70 -1.97
Sat 23/08 FK Septemvri Sofia 2 1.88 +0.12 -1.85
Fri 29/08 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 1 1.88 -0.88 -2.73
Fri 12/09 Botev Plovdiv 1 0.81 +0.19 -2.54
Fri 19/09 FK Spartak Varna 1 2.79 -1.79 -4.33
Sun 28/09 Ludogorets 0 0.31 -0.31 -4.64
Sat 04/10 Cherno More Varna 1 1.17 -0.17 -4.81
Mon 20/10 Beroe Stara Zagora 1 1.58 -0.58 -5.39
Fri 24/10 Arda Kardzhali 1 0.57 +0.43 -4.96
Sun 02/11 CSKA Sofia 1 0.23 +0.77 -4.19
Sun 09/11 Slavia Sofia 1 2.09 -1.09 -5.28
Sun 23/11 Levski Sofia 1 0.67 +0.33 -4.95
Fri 28/11 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 0.16 -0.16 -5.11
Tue 02/12 Lokomotiv Sofia 1 1.01 -0.01 -5.12
Tue 09/12 Botev Vratsa 0 0.57 -0.57 -5.69
Fri 06/02 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0 0.38 -0.38 -6.07
Mon 16/02 FK Septemvri Sofia 0 1.34 -1.34 -7.41
Sat 21/02 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 0 0.46 -0.46 -7.87
Fri 27/02 Botev Plovdiv 0 0.87 -0.87 -8.74
Tue 03/03 FK Spartak Varna 0 0.38 -0.38 -9.12
Mon 09/03 Ludogorets 0 0.47 -0.47 -9.59
Sun 15/03 Cherno More Varna 0 0.77 -0.77 -10.36
Sun 22/03 Beroe Stara Zagora 0 0.88 -0.88 -11.24
Sat 04/04 Arda Kardzhali 1 1.28 -0.28 -11.52
Thu 16/04 Slavia Sofia 0 1.34 -1.34 -12.86
Mon 27/04 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 1 1.67 -0.67 -13.53
Fri 01/05 FK Septemvri Sofia 1 1.34 -0.34 -13.87
Tue 05/05 Beroe Stara Zagora 2 1.23 +0.77 -13.10
Sat 09/05 Lokomotiv Sofia 2 1.68 +0.32 -12.78
Thu 14/05 Botev Vratsa 0 0.00 +0.00 -12.78
Mon 18/05 FK Spartak Varna 0 0.27 -0.27 -13.05

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

PFK Montana 1921 xG trend

Current form -0.70 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 13 of 35 matches. The worst was against FK Spartak Varna on Mon 18/05 (-3.41).

npxG · last 6
0.91
npxGA · last 6
1.61
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 -2.01 Sun 20/07 -0.66 Mon 28/07 +0.31 Sun 03/08 -1.10 Fri 08/08 -1.41 Fri 15/08 +1.14 Sat 23/08 +0.12 Fri 29/08 +0.14 Fri 12/09 +2.27 Fri 19/09 -2.50 Sun 28/09 -0.10 Sat 04/10 +1.32 Mon 20/10 -0.11 Fri 24/10 -2.56 Sun 02/11 +0.09 Sun 09/11 -1.07 Sun 23/11 -0.96 Fri 28/11 +0.20 Tue 02/12 -0.93 Tue 09/12 -0.08 Fri 06/02 +0.50 Mon 16/02 -0.47 Sat 21/02 -0.27 Fri 27/02 -0.68 Tue 03/03 -1.94 Mon 09/03 +0.48 Sun 15/03 -0.08 Sun 22/03 -0.08 Sat 04/04 +0.42 Thu 16/04 +0.57 Mon 27/04 -0.18 Fri 01/05 +0.22 Tue 05/05 -1.04 Sat 09/05 -0.38 Thu 14/05 -3.41 Mon 18/05 -0.41 season avg
PFK Montana 1921: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 20/07 Levski Sofia 1.09 3.10 -2.01 -2.01
Mon 28/07 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.39 1.05 -0.66 -1.34
Sun 03/08 Lokomotiv Sofia 1.68 1.37 +0.31 -0.79
Fri 08/08 Botev Vratsa 0.51 1.61 -1.10 -0.87
Fri 15/08 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.30 1.71 -1.41 -0.97
Sat 23/08 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.89 0.75 +1.14 -0.62
Fri 29/08 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 1.12 1.00 +0.12 -0.52
Fri 12/09 Botev Plovdiv 0.81 0.67 +0.14 -0.43
Fri 19/09 FK Spartak Varna 2.89 0.62 +2.27 -0.13
Sun 28/09 Ludogorets 0.31 2.81 -2.50 -0.37
Sat 04/10 Cherno More Varna 1.17 1.27 -0.10 -0.35
Mon 20/10 Beroe Stara Zagora 1.58 0.26 +1.32 -0.21
Fri 24/10 Arda Kardzhali 0.57 0.68 -0.11 -0.20
Sun 02/11 CSKA Sofia 0.23 2.79 -2.56 -0.37
Sun 09/11 Slavia Sofia 2.10 2.01 +0.09 -0.34
Sun 23/11 Levski Sofia 0.67 1.74 -1.07 -0.38
Fri 28/11 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.16 1.12 -0.96 -0.42
Tue 02/12 Lokomotiv Sofia 1.01 0.81 +0.20 -0.38
Tue 09/12 Botev Vratsa 0.57 1.50 -0.93 -0.41
Fri 06/02 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.50 0.58 -0.08 -0.39
Mon 16/02 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.34 0.84 +0.50 -0.35
Sat 21/02 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 0.46 0.93 -0.47 -0.36
Fri 27/02 Botev Plovdiv 0.87 1.14 -0.27 -0.35
Tue 03/03 FK Spartak Varna 0.38 1.06 -0.68 -0.37
Mon 09/03 Ludogorets 0.47 2.41 -1.94 -0.43
Sun 15/03 Cherno More Varna 0.77 0.29 +0.48 -0.40
Sun 22/03 Beroe Stara Zagora 0.88 0.96 -0.08 -0.38
Sat 04/04 Arda Kardzhali 1.28 1.36 -0.08 -0.37
Thu 16/04 Slavia Sofia 1.34 0.92 +0.42 -0.35
Mon 27/04 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 1.67 1.10 +0.57 -0.31
Fri 01/05 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.58 0.76 -0.18 -0.31
Tue 05/05 Beroe Stara Zagora 1.24 1.02 +0.22 -0.29
Sat 09/05 Lokomotiv Sofia 1.69 2.73 -1.04 -0.32
Thu 14/05 Botev Vratsa 0.01 0.39 -0.38 -0.32
Mon 18/05 FK Spartak Varna 0.27 3.68 -3.41 -0.41

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.94 npxG and 1.34 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 12 hardest of 16 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
−0.05 xG vs league average
Over 36 league matches
Last 5
number 13 hardest of 15 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
−0.37 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.05 xG vs league average · over 36 matches · tied number 12 hardest of 16

  1. Slavia Sofia Away −0.59
  2. FK Spartak Varna Home −0.63
  3. Botev Vratsa Away −0.14
  4. Lokomotiv Sofia Home −0.07
  5. Beroe Stara Zagora Away −0.43
  6. FK Septemvri Sofia Away −0.31
  7. FK Dobrudzha Dobrich Home −0.06
  8. Slavia Sofia Home −0.59
  9. Arda Kardzhali Away +0.17
  10. Beroe Stara Zagora Home −0.43
  11. Cherno More Varna Away −0.20
  12. Ludogorets Home +0.85
  13. FK Spartak Varna Away −0.63
  14. Botev Plovdiv Home +0.23
  15. FK Dobrudzha Dobrich Away −0.06
  16. FK Septemvri Sofia Away −0.31
  17. FC CSKA 1948 Sofia Home +0.36
  18. Botev Vratsa Away −0.14
  19. Lokomotiv Sofia Home −0.07
  20. Lokomotiv Plovdiv Away +0.02
  21. Levski Sofia Home +0.69
  22. Slavia Sofia Away −0.59
  23. CSKA Sofia Away +0.54
  24. Arda Kardzhali Home +0.17
  25. Beroe Stara Zagora Away −0.43
  26. Cherno More Varna Home −0.20
  27. Ludogorets Away +0.85
  28. FK Spartak Varna Home −0.63
  29. Botev Plovdiv Away +0.23
  30. FK Dobrudzha Dobrich Home −0.06
  31. FK Septemvri Sofia Home −0.31
  32. FC CSKA 1948 Sofia Away +0.36
  33. Botev Vratsa Home −0.14
  34. Lokomotiv Sofia Away −0.07
  35. Lokomotiv Plovdiv Home +0.02
  36. Levski Sofia Away +0.69

Last 5

−0.37 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 13 hardest of 15

  1. Slavia Sofia Away −0.59
  2. FK Spartak Varna Home −0.63
  3. Botev Vratsa Away −0.14
  4. Lokomotiv Sofia Home −0.07
  5. Beroe Stara Zagora Away −0.43

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

PFK Montana 1921 shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. PFK Montana 1921 take 9.1 shots a match (league 11.4) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #14 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria) for volume and #11 for quality. 44% of their shots come from inside the box (league 56%).

Attack

Shot volume
9.1 shots per match
#14/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Ludogorets 15.9
#2 CSKA Sofia 15.4
#3 Levski Sofia 15.2
#4 Botev Plovdiv 13.0
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 11.7
#6 Slavia Sofia 11.5
#7 Arda Kardzhali 11.0
#8 Cherno More Varna 10.9
#9 Lokomotiv Sofia 10.8
#10 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10.5
#11 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 10.4
#12 Beroe Stara Zagora 9.5
#13 Botev Vratsa 9.4
#14 PFK Montana 1921 9.1
=15 FK Septemvri Sofia 8.9
=15 FK Spartak Varna 8.9
League avg
11.4
Total
317 shots from 35 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#11/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.12
#2 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.12
#3 Arda Kardzhali 0.11
#4 Levski Sofia 0.11
#5 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.11
#6 Beroe Stara Zagora 0.11
#7 Ludogorets 0.11
#8 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.11
#9 Cherno More Varna 0.11
#10 Botev Vratsa 0.11
#11 PFK Montana 1921 0.10
#12 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 0.10
#13 Botev Plovdiv 0.09
#14 Slavia Sofia 0.09
#15 CSKA Sofia 0.09
#16 FK Spartak Varna 0.09
League avg
0.10
Total
32.80 npxG from 317 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
11.4 shots per match
#10/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Levski Sofia 7.2
#2 Ludogorets 7.6
#3 CSKA Sofia 8.3
#4 Arda Kardzhali 9.5
#5 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 9.5
#6 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 10.6
#7 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10.9
#8 Botev Vratsa 11.1
#9 Cherno More Varna 11.4
#10 PFK Montana 1921 11.4
#11 Botev Plovdiv 11.8
#12 Lokomotiv Sofia 12.1
#13 FK Septemvri Sofia 13.4
#14 Slavia Sofia 14.8
#15 FK Spartak Varna 15.6
#16 Beroe Stara Zagora 16.1
League avg
11.4
Total
400 shots allowed from 35 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.12 npxGA per shot
#14/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.09
#2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.09
#3 Levski Sofia 0.10
#4 Ludogorets 0.10
#5 Arda Kardzhali 0.10
#6 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.10
#7 Beroe Stara Zagora 0.10
#8 Slavia Sofia 0.10
#9 Botev Plovdiv 0.10
#10 Botev Vratsa 0.10
#11 CSKA Sofia 0.11
#12 FK Spartak Varna 0.11
#13 Cherno More Varna 0.11
#14 PFK Montana 1921 0.12
#15 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.12
#16 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 0.12
League avg
0.10
Total
47.04 npxGA from 400 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

44% inside the box

League avg 56%

From 140 of 317 shots over 35 matches

Shots allowed, location

59% allowed inside the box

League avg 56%

From 237 of 400 shots allowed over 35 matches

PFK Montana 1921 home and away xG

PFK Montana 1921 per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 17 19 18 with xG
xG / match 1.08 0.87
xGA / match 1.53 1.39
xGD / match -0.44 -0.52
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.12 1.02

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every PFK Montana 1921 match by xG

Venue

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.68. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

PFK Montana 1921 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Attack

Defence

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →