Drogheda United 0:2 St. Patrick's Athletic: xG & match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Friday, 21/08/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Drogheda United Home 0.39 xG

St. Patrick's Athletic Away 1.83 xG

02 The scoreline reflected the chances

St. Patrick's Athletic were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Drogheda United's attack: 0.39 xG against 1.13 projected (−0.74). St. Patrick's Athletic produced 1.83 xG against 1.55 projected (+0.28).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Drogheda United: 25%
Draw: 30%
St. Patrick's Athletic: 45% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Drogheda United 1.13 0.39 -0.74

St. Patrick's Athletic 1.55 1.83 +0.28

Drogheda United produced 0.74 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Drogheda United St. Patrick's Athletic

Shots: 7; 19
On target: 1; 7
Inside the box: 6; 11
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.10

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Drogheda United

1.09 xG created 1.55 xGA

L 0.41 created, 1.45 conceded against Derry City
L 2.28 created, 1.78 conceded against Bohemian FC
W 1.25 created, 1.44 conceded against Dundalk FC
D 1.03 created, 1.69 conceded against Sligo Rovers
D 0.94 created, 0.76 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
D 0.60 created, 2.18 conceded against Galway United

St. Patrick's Athletic

2.09 xG created 1.18 xGA

L 1.14 created, 2.14 conceded against Bohemian FC
W 2.06 created, 0.48 conceded against Galway United
D 2.55 created, 1.43 conceded against Waterford FC
D 1.98 created, 1.43 conceded against Dundalk FC
D 1.67 created, 0.50 conceded against Derry City
W 3.15 created, 1.12 conceded against Shelbourne

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Drogheda United: 0 won · 1 drawn · 4 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Drogheda United against St. Patrick's Athletic before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Drogheda United 2+ goals	4.00	+26.2%	Lost
Drogheda United to win	5.00	+24.7%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.95	+15.2%	Lost
Drogheda United to score	1.62	+13.8%	Lost
Draw	3.60	+6.5%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.29	+1.5%	Won
St. Patrick's Athletic at most 1 goal	1.91	+0.5%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.95	+0.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Drogheda United	24.9%	18.2%	+6.7 pp	4.01
Draw	29.6%	25.3%	+4.3 pp	3.38
St. Patrick's Athletic	45.5%	56.4%	−11.0 pp	2.20

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Drogheda United to score	70.5%	57.7%	+12.8 pp	1.42
Drogheda United not to score	29.5%	42.3%	−12.8 pp	3.39
St. Patrick's Athletic to score	81.4%	81.1%	+0.3 pp	1.23
St. Patrick's Athletic not to score	18.6%	18.9%	−0.3 pp	5.38
Both teams to score	59.1%	48.0%	+11.1 pp	1.69
Both teams not to score	40.9%	52.0%	−11.1 pp	2.44
Drogheda United 2+ goals	31.6%	23.4%	+8.2 pp	3.17
Drogheda United at most 1 goal	68.4%	76.6%	−8.2 pp	1.46
St. Patrick's Athletic 2+ goals	47.3%	51.5%	−4.1 pp	2.11
St. Patrick's Athletic at most 1 goal	52.7%	48.5%	+4.1 pp	1.90
Over 1.5 goals	78.9%	73.1%	+5.8 pp	1.27
Under 1.5 goals	21.1%	26.9%	−5.8 pp	4.75
Over 2.5 goals	51.5%	48.7%	+2.8 pp	1.94
Under 2.5 goals	48.5%	51.3%	−2.8 pp	2.06

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Drogheda United sample: 20 matches
St. Patrick's Athletic sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.