Chelsea 1:3 Brighton & Hove Albion: xG & match report · Premier League

Saturday, 27/09/2025 at 16:00

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Match report · Premier League

Chelsea Home 1.81 xG · 13 shots

Brighton & Hove Albion Away 2.28 xG · 12 shots

13 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

24' Enzo Fernández Chelsea · 0.92 xG chance 1–0
77' Danny Welbeck Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.43 xG chance 1–1
90' Danny Welbeck Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.27 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
90' Maxim De Cuyper Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.61 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.

The shots behind it

Chelsea Brighton & Hove Albion

Shots: 13; 12
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 7; 8
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.19
Open play xG: 1.16; 1.43
Set-piece xG: 0.63; 0.82
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.81 for Chelsea and 2.28 for Brighton & Hove Albion.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 4.04 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Chelsea
Brighton & Hove Albion
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Chelsea

1.67 xG created 1.14 xGA

D 1.60 created, 0.66 conceded against Crystal Palace
W 2.74 created, 0.73 conceded against West Ham United
W 2.35 created, 1.02 conceded against Fulham
D 1.25 created, 1.43 conceded against Brentford
L 0.43 created, 1.84 conceded against Manchester United

Brighton & Hove Albion

1.63 xG created 1.37 xGA

D 1.48 created, 0.76 conceded against Fulham
L 2.43 created, 1.60 conceded against Everton
W 2.30 created, 1.82 conceded against Manchester City
L 0.62 created, 1.45 conceded against Bournemouth
D 1.32 created, 1.22 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.