NK Celje 0:1 FC Koper: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 20:15

Full time

Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

NK Celje Home 2.11 xG

FC Koper Away 1.88 xG

01 The chances were evenly matched

NK Celje were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. FC Koper won 1–0. The biggest difference was NK Celje's attack: 2.11 xG against 1.59 projected (+0.52). FC Koper produced 1.88 xG against 1.39 projected (+0.49).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Celje: 41%
Draw: 28%
FC Koper: 31% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Celje 1.59 2.11 +0.52

FC Koper 1.39 1.88 +0.49

NK Celje produced 0.52 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Celje FC Koper

Shots: 18; 11
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 11; 6
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.17

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Celje

1.82 xG created 1.03 xGA

W 2.45 created, 0.49 conceded against ND Primorje
D 1.94 created, 0.96 conceded against NŠ Mura
D 1.35 created, 1.44 conceded against NK Maribor
W 1.59 created, 0.44 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
W 2.11 created, 1.29 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
L 1.48 created, 1.56 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje

FC Koper

1.52 xG created 0.87 xGA

D 2.75 created, 1.26 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
D 1.67 created, 0.69 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
L 0.54 created, 0.40 conceded against NK Maribor
D 2.12 created, 1.60 conceded against NK Bravo
W 1.14 created, 1.06 conceded against NŠ Mura
W 0.87 created, 0.22 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

NK Celje: 1 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Celje against FC Koper before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.57	+2.9%	Lost
Draw	3.60	+2.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Celje	40.6%	46.1%	−5.5 pp	2.46
Draw	28.5%	25.0%	+3.5 pp	3.51
FC Koper	30.9%	29.0%	+2.0 pp	3.23

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	65.5%	58.9%	+6.6 pp	1.53
Both teams not to score	34.5%	41.1%	−6.6 pp	2.90
Over 1.5 goals	83.7%	79.4%	+4.3 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	16.3%	20.6%	−4.3 pp	6.15
Over 2.5 goals	59.1%	58.2%	+0.9 pp	1.69
Under 2.5 goals	40.9%	41.8%	−0.9 pp	2.44

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Celje sample: 20 matches
FC Koper sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.