Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 18:45
33d 13h to kick-offBaltika Kaliningrad – Dinamo Makhachkala
Model updated 6 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Baltika Kaliningrad
- 47%
- Draw
- 32%
- Dinamo Makhachkala
- 21%
| Baltika Kaliningrad | Draw | Dinamo Makhachkala | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.12 | 3.16 | 4.73 |
- Total goals
- 2.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score
- 51%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Baltika Kaliningrad
47% Baltika Kaliningrad to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 5th
- Baltika Kaliningrad attack v Dinamo Makhachkala defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 15th
- Baltika Kaliningrad defence v Dinamo Makhachkala attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.58 vs +0.15
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.40 – 0.90
- Baltika Kaliningrad v Dinamo Makhachkala
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Baltika Kaliningrad | Dinamo Makhachkala |
|---|---|---|
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.58 | +0.15 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- Baltika Kaliningrad clean sheet
- 38%
- Baltika Kaliningrad 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score: no
- 49%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.3%
- 1:0
- 11.8%
- 2:1
- 10.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Baltika Kaliningrad sample
- 20 matches
- Dinamo Makhachkala sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Baltika Kaliningrad
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · Dinamo Makhachkala
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.