Baltika Kaliningrad 0:1 Lokomotiv Moscow: xG & match report · Russian Premier League

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 19:45

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Match report · Russian Premier League

Baltika Kaliningrad Home

Lokomotiv Moscow Away

Baltika Kaliningrad were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. Lokomotiv Moscow won 1–0.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Baltika Kaliningrad: 45%
Draw: 28%
Lokomotiv Moscow: 27% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Baltika Kaliningrad

1.51 xG created 0.94 xGA

D 0.58 created, 1.19 conceded against FK Krasnodar
D 2.25 created, 0.62 conceded against Akhmat Grozny
L 1.17 created, 0.51 conceded against Akron Togliatti
L 0.44 created, 0.30 conceded against Rubin Kazan
L 2.24 created, 2.09 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
L 2.40 created, 0.91 conceded against Dynamo Moscow

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.80 xG created 1.54 xGA

D 1.82 created, 0.56 conceded against Zenit St. Petersburg
L 1.37 created, 2.91 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
D 2.04 created, 0.44 conceded against Dynamo Moscow
W 2.09 created, 2.24 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
L 2.03 created, 1.19 conceded against CSKA Moscow
D 1.44 created, 1.87 conceded against Akhmat Grozny

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Baltika Kaliningrad: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Baltika Kaliningrad against Lokomotiv Moscow before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	2.12	+25.0%	Lost
Lokomotiv Moscow to win	4.14	+10.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Baltika Kaliningrad	45.2%	49.0%	−3.8 pp	2.21
Draw	28.0%	27.7%	+0.3 pp	3.58
Lokomotiv Moscow	26.8%	23.2%	+3.5 pp	3.73

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 2.5 goals	59.0%	45.2%	+13.7 pp	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	41.0%	54.8%	−13.7 pp	2.44

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Baltika Kaliningrad sample: 20 matches
Lokomotiv Moscow sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.