Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 13:15
24d 18h to kick-offDinamo Makhachkala – FC Rostov
Model updated 7 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Dinamo Makhachkala
- 36%
- Draw
- 34%
- FC Rostov
- 31%
| Dinamo Makhachkala | Draw | FC Rostov | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.80 | 2.98 | 3.26 |
- Total goals
- 2.24
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score
- 51%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Dinamo Makhachkala
36% Dinamo Makhachkala to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 6th
- Dinamo Makhachkala attack v FC Rostov defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 13th
- Dinamo Makhachkala defence v FC Rostov attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.15 vs -0.54
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.17 – 1.07
- Dinamo Makhachkala v FC Rostov
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Dinamo Makhachkala | FC Rostov |
|---|---|---|
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.15 | -0.54 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- Dinamo Makhachkala clean sheet
- 31%
- Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
- 33%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score: no
- 49%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.3%
- 0:0
- 10.8%
- 1:0
- 10.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dinamo Makhachkala sample
- 20 matches
- FC Rostov sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Dinamo Makhachkala
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Rostov
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.