Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 17:30
14d 14h to kick-offFC Spartak Moscow – Rubin Kazan
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Spartak Moscow
- 59%
- Draw
- 27%
- Rubin Kazan
- 15%
| FC Spartak Moscow | Draw | Rubin Kazan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.71 | 3.76 | 6.78 |
- Total goals
- 2.61
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Spartak Moscow
59% FC Spartak Moscow to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 8th
- FC Spartak Moscow attack v Rubin Kazan defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 16th
- FC Spartak Moscow defence v Rubin Kazan attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.84 vs -0.14
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.76 – 0.84
- FC Spartak Moscow v Rubin Kazan
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Spartak Moscow | Rubin Kazan |
|---|---|---|
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.84 | -0.14 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- FC Spartak Moscow clean sheet
- 40%
- FC Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 48%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.7%
- 2:0
- 11.7%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Spartak Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- Rubin Kazan sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Spartak Moscow
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · Rubin Kazan
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.