Falkirk FC 1:2 Rangers: xG & match report · Scottish Premiership

Wednesday, 02/09/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · Scottish Premiership

Falkirk FC Home 0.85 xG · 13 shots

Rangers Away 1.57 xG · 16 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Rangers were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 2–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

Goals

8' Lawrence Shankland Rangers · 0.16 xG chance 0–1
44' Kosta Nedeljković (o.g.) Falkirk FC · 0.10 xG chance 1–1
79' Lawrence Shankland Rangers · 0.34 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Falkirk FC: 22%
Draw: 29%
Rangers: 49% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Falkirk FC 1.04 0.85 -0.19

Rangers 1.58 1.57 -0.01

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Falkirk FC Rangers

Shots: 13; 16
On target: 6; 6
Inside the box: 7; 13
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.86; 1.47
Set-piece xG: 0.07; 0.10
Penalties: —; —

Falkirk FC's shots add up to 0.93 xG; the published figure is 0.85.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.50 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Falkirk FC
Rangers
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Falkirk FC

0.79 xG created 1.62 xGA

L 0.48 created, 1.07 conceded against Hibernian
L 0.30 created, 0.59 conceded against Heart of Midlothian
L 2.26 created, 2.67 conceded against Rangers
L 0.71 created, 1.64 conceded against St. Mirren
D 0.44 created, 0.89 conceded against Motherwell
L 0.53 created, 2.87 conceded against Celtic

Rangers

1.73 xG created 1.45 xGA

L 0.91 created, 1.04 conceded against Celtic
L 1.45 created, 1.54 conceded against Hibernian
W 2.67 created, 2.26 conceded against Falkirk FC
D 1.46 created, 1.64 conceded against Dundee United
L 2.05 created, 1.74 conceded against Hibernian
W 1.84 created, 0.45 conceded against Aberdeen

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Falkirk FC: 0 won · 2 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Falkirk FC against Rangers before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.33	+27.2%	Lost
Rangers at most 1 goal	2.38	+22.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.38	+19.1%	Lost
Rangers not to score	6.50	+18.1%	Lost
Falkirk FC to win	5.25	+15.9%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+11.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Falkirk FC	22.1%	18.2%	+3.9 pp	4.53
Draw	29.4%	22.1%	+7.3 pp	3.41
Rangers	48.6%	59.7%	−11.2 pp	2.06

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Falkirk FC to score	67.5%	64.5%	+3.0 pp	1.48
Falkirk FC not to score	32.5%	35.5%	−3.0 pp	3.08
Rangers to score	81.8%	85.4%	−3.6 pp	1.22
Rangers not to score	18.2%	14.6%	+3.6 pp	5.50
Both teams to score	57.0%	55.7%	+1.2 pp	1.76
Both teams not to score	43.0%	44.3%	−1.2 pp	2.32
Falkirk FC 2+ goals	27.9%	29.1%	−1.2 pp	3.59
Falkirk FC at most 1 goal	72.1%	70.9%	+1.2 pp	1.39
Rangers 2+ goals	48.3%	60.8%	−12.5 pp	2.07
Rangers at most 1 goal	51.7%	39.2%	+12.5 pp	1.93
Over 1.5 goals	77.7%	81.1%	−3.3 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.3%	18.9%	+3.3 pp	4.49
Over 2.5 goals	49.8%	60.2%	−10.4 pp	2.01
Under 2.5 goals	50.2%	39.8%	+10.4 pp	1.99

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Falkirk FC sample: 20 matches
Rangers sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.