What Kilmarnock have left to play in Scottish Premiership 2026/2027, soonest first. Open a match for the projection behind it and the prices standing against it.
Fixture outlook
6 matches ahead in Scottish Premiership
Every club's remaining calendar is a different length, so there is nothing of equal length to place the whole of this one against.
What the fixtures say
The run of 6 matches ahead of Kilmarnock in Scottish Premiership rates 4.0 of 5 for difficulty, which the scale calls Difficult. 4 of them rate harder than balanced, and nothing in the run rates easier. The model expects 1.09 projected xG a match from them and 5.4 of the 18 points the priced fixtures could return. The hardest of them is Rangers away, banded 5 of 5 — Very difficult, against an attack rated 82/99 and a defence rated 77/99. Worth reading those figures against: the fit behind at least one of these fixtures is drawn from a thin sample of played matches.
The run at a glance
St. Johnstone home Sat 31/10
Projected xG 1.28 – 1.41 Kilmarnock win 31%
Rangers away Sat 10/10
Projected xG 0.83 – 2.44 Kilmarnock win 8%
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Open the match page for Rangers
Sat 10/10 Away Rangers Scottish Premiership
5 Very difficult Opponent: attack 82/99, defence 77/99Projected xG 0.83 – 2.44 Projected xPts 0.43- Rangers
- 74%
- Draw
- 18%
- Kilmarnock
- 8%
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Open the match page for Motherwell
Sat 17/10 Home Motherwell Scottish Premiership
4 Difficult Opponent: attack 49/99, defence 56/99Projected xG 1.13 – 1.57 Projected xPts 1.03- Kilmarnock
- 25%
- Draw
- 29%
- Motherwell
- 46%
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Open the match page for Falkirk FC
Sat 24/10 Away Falkirk FC Scottish Premiership
4 Difficult Opponent: attack 40/99, defence 49/99Projected xG 1.09 – 1.55 Projected xPts 1.01- Falkirk FC
- 46%
- Draw
- 30%
- Kilmarnock
- 24%
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Open the match page for Dundee FC
Wed 28/10 Away Dundee FC Scottish Premiership
3 Balanced Opponent: attack 37/99, defence 24/99Projected xG 1.32 – 1.48 Projected xPts 1.24- Dundee FC
- 39%
- Draw
- 30%
- Kilmarnock
- 31%
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Open the match page for St. Johnstone
Sat 31/10 Home St. Johnstone Scottish Premiership
3 Balanced Opponent: attack 40/99, defence 41/99Projected xG 1.28 – 1.41 Projected xPts 1.24- Kilmarnock
- 31%
- Draw
- 30%
- St. Johnstone
- 38%
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Open the match page for Celtic
Sun 08/11 Away Celtic Scottish Premiership
5 Very difficult Opponent: attack 83/99, defence 73/99Projected xG 0.88 – 2.49 Projected xPts 0.44- Celtic
- 73%
- Draw
- 18%
- Kilmarnock
- 9%
Scottish Premiership publishes only its next few rounds, so the list stops here. The rest of the season is added as the league schedules it.
After the regular season Scottish Premiership splits into groups, and those fixtures are set once the table decides who is in which.
The band is how hard the model rates each match, from 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest). Opponent attack and defence use the same 1–99 scale as Team Strength, where 50 is the average side in Scottish Premiership.
Fixture difficulty in Scottish Premiership
Reads each matchup for Kilmarnock: the band is cut from the model's chances of Kilmarnock winning and losing the match, so Kilmarnock's own strength and home advantage are in it.
Every club's remaining calendar is a different length, so there is nothing of equal length to place the whole of this one against.
Upcoming opponent strength
number 6 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
+0.01 xG vs league average
Over 5 upcoming league fixtures
Reads the opponents alone, whoever plays them: each one's fitted xG margin against Scottish Premiership's average club, with no venue and nothing of Kilmarnock's own strength in it.
Opponents behind the figure
Upcoming
+0.01 xG vs league average · over 5 fixtures · number 6 hardest of 12
- Rangers Away +0.85
- Motherwell Home +0.05
- Falkirk FC Away −0.15
- Dundee FC Away −0.48
- St. Johnstone Home −0.23
About these numbers
What is published, what is worked out, and what is the model's
Published by the fixtures feed and stored as it arrives: the kickoff time, the two clubs, the competition, and whether a match is still scheduled.
Worked out here from stored figures: each opponent's attack and defence on a 1–99 scale, where 50 is the average side in Scottish Premiership and a higher score is a stronger side at both ends; the difficulty band, cut from the model's chances of winning and losing each fixture; and everything the outlook, the strip and the fixture difficulty block add up from the rows — the run's mean band, its averages and totals, the counts they were taken over, the placings and the competition's average.
Worked out here from the model's ratings alone: the Upcoming opponent strength block, the mean of the next 5 opponents' fitted xG margins against the league's average club, whoever plays them, and its rank among the competition's clubs.
The model's output, for matches nobody has played yet: projected xG and xGA, the chances of a win, a draw and a loss, and xPts.
Projected xG is what the model expects a side to create in a match still to come. It is not the xG on the Results page, which measures the chances a side actually had.
xPts is what those three chances are worth in points: 3 times the chance of a win plus the chance of a draw, so 3 is the most a single fixture can be worth.
The difficulty band runs from 1, the most favourable fixture, to 5, the least favourable — so the lower a run's difficulty, the kinder the run.