St. Johnstone 4:3 Kilmarnock: xG & match report · Scottish Premiership

Sunday, 02/08/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Scottish Premiership

St. Johnstone Home 1.76 xG · 16 shots

Kilmarnock Away 0.79 xG · 8 shots

43 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

16' Josh Fowler St. Johnstone · 0.23 xG chance 1–0
37' Greg Kiltie Kilmarnock · 0.49 xG chance 1–1
47' Cheick Diabate St. Johnstone · 0.26 xG chance 2–1
49' Joe Hugill Kilmarnock · 0.07 xG chance 2–2
53' Jason Holt (o.g.) Kilmarnock · 0.16 xG chance 2–3
69' Michael Schjønning-Larsen (o.g.) St. Johnstone · 0.20 xG chance 3–3
80' Kai Fotheringham St. Johnstone · 0.26 xG chance 4–3

The shots behind it

St. Johnstone Kilmarnock

Shots: 16; 8
On target: 6; 6
Inside the box: 10; 6
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.12
Open play xG: 0.91; 0.94
Set-piece xG: 1.05; 0.03
Penalties: —; —

St. Johnstone's shots add up to 1.96 xG and Kilmarnock's to 0.97; the published figures are 1.76 and 0.79.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 2.93 xG

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St. Johnstone
Kilmarnock
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

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Last 6 · xG per match

St. Johnstone

No match with expected goals behind it yet.

Kilmarnock

1.73 xG created 0.91 xGA

D 1.23 created, 1.28 conceded against Dundee FC
L 0.54 created, 0.47 conceded against Aberdeen
W 1.98 created, 1.82 conceded against Dundee United
W 1.15 created, 0.78 conceded against St. Mirren
W 3.38 created, 0.43 conceded against Dundee FC
W 2.08 created, 0.69 conceded against Livingston

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

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The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.