Asteras Aktor 0:1 Olympiacos FC: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 20:00

Full time

Match report · Super League Greece

Asteras Aktor Home 0.83 xG · 10 shots

Olympiacos FC Away 1.70 xG · 15 shots

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

Olympiacos FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. They won 1–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

Goals

31' Jota Silva Olympiacos FC · 0.17 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Asteras Aktor: 14%
Draw: 29%
Olympiacos FC: 57% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Asteras Aktor 0.69 0.83 +0.14

Olympiacos FC 1.52 1.70 +0.18

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Asteras Aktor Olympiacos FC

Shots: 10; 15
On target: 3; 7
Inside the box: 8; 10
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.54; 1.54
Set-piece xG: 0.28; 0.11
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.84 for Asteras Aktor and 1.71 for Olympiacos FC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 2.47 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Asteras Aktor
Olympiacos FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Asteras Aktor

1.70 xG created 1.02 xGA

W 3.22 created, 1.46 conceded against Atromitos Athens
D 0.83 created, 0.79 conceded against AE Larisa
W 1.42 created, 0.70 conceded against MGS Panserraikos
D 1.69 created, 0.44 conceded against AE Kifisia
W 1.86 created, 2.23 conceded against Panetolikos
L 1.19 created, 0.50 conceded against Panetolikos

Olympiacos FC

1.98 xG created 0.81 xGA

W 1.54 created, 0.87 conceded against Panathinaikos
L 2.28 created, 1.95 conceded against PAOK
D 2.19 created, 0.73 conceded against PAOK
W 2.07 created, 0.22 conceded against Panathinaikos
D 0.62 created, 0.78 conceded against AEK Athens
W 3.17 created, 0.30 conceded against Atromitos Athens

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Asteras Aktor: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Asteras Aktor against Olympiacos FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Asteras Aktor to win	9.50	+52.8%	Lost
Draw	4.20	+31.9%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.85	+16.8%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	3.50	+8.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Asteras Aktor	13.9%	9.9%	+4.0 pp	7.20
Draw	29.3%	22.3%	+7.0 pp	3.41
Olympiacos FC	56.8%	67.9%	−11.0 pp	1.76

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	44.1%	41.1%	+3.0 pp	2.27
Both teams not to score	55.9%	58.9%	−3.0 pp	1.79
Over 1.5 goals	68.9%	73.1%	−4.2 pp	1.45
Under 1.5 goals	31.1%	26.9%	+4.2 pp	3.22
Over 2.5 goals	38.5%	48.7%	−10.2 pp	2.60
Under 2.5 goals	61.5%	51.3%	+10.2 pp	1.63

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Asteras Aktor sample: 20 matches
Olympiacos FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.