OFI Crete 2:0 NPS Volos: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 18:30

Full time

Match report · Super League Greece

OFI Crete Home 1.40 xG · 10 shots

NPS Volos Away 0.91 xG · 10 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

OFI Crete were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 2–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

Goals

6' Marios Siampanis (o.g.) OFI Crete · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
33' Thiago Nuss (pen.) OFI Crete · 0.82 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

OFI Crete: 48% What happened
Draw: 30%
NPS Volos: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

OFI Crete 1.56 1.40 -0.16

NPS Volos 1.05 0.91 -0.14

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

OFI Crete NPS Volos

Shots: 10; 10
On target: 3; 1
Inside the box: 6; 7
xG per shot: 0.15; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.51; 0.29
Set-piece xG: 0.20; 0.54
Penalties: 1; 0

OFI Crete's shots add up to 1.53 xG and NPS Volos's to 0.83; the published figures are 1.40 and 0.91.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 2.36 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

OFI Crete
NPS Volos
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

OFI Crete

1.21 xG created 1.25 xGA

D 1.23 created, 0.73 conceded against NPS Volos
W 1.42 created, 0.53 conceded against APO Levadiakos
L 0.59 created, 0.77 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
L 1.53 created, 1.76 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
L 0.72 created, 2.38 conceded against APO Levadiakos
W 1.79 created, 1.34 conceded against NPS Volos

NPS Volos

0.98 xG created 2.17 xGA

D 0.73 created, 1.23 conceded against OFI Crete
L 0.49 created, 1.69 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
L 2.35 created, 4.71 conceded against APO Levadiakos
L 0.54 created, 2.17 conceded against APO Levadiakos
L 0.42 created, 1.40 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
L 1.34 created, 1.79 conceded against OFI Crete

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

OFI Crete: 1 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged1 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on OFI Crete against NPS Volos before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
OFI Crete to win	2.10	+0.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
OFI Crete	47.7%	44.7%	+3.1 pp	2.10
Draw	29.7%	29.3%	+0.4 pp	3.37
NPS Volos	22.6%	26.0%	−3.4 pp	4.42

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.1%	55.7%	+1.4 pp	1.75
Both teams not to score	42.9%	44.3%	−1.4 pp	2.33
Over 1.5 goals	77.6%	75.0%	+2.6 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.4%	25.0%	−2.6 pp	4.47
Over 2.5 goals	49.6%	51.3%	−1.8 pp	2.02
Under 2.5 goals	50.4%	48.7%	+1.8 pp	1.98

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
OFI Crete sample: 20 matches
NPS Volos sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.