Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 19:00
Full timePS Kalamata 2:3 Aris Thessaloniki
PS Kalamata were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. Aris Thessaloniki won 3–2. The biggest difference was Aris Thessaloniki's attack: 2.69 xG against 1.08 projected (+1.61).
Goals
- 41' Jovanny Bolívar PS Kalamata · 0.21 xG chance 1–0
- 45' Uroš Račić (pen.) Aris Thessaloniki · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
- 60' Kenneth Vargas PS Kalamata · 0.91 xG chance 2–1
- 88' Fabiano Aris Thessaloniki · 0.27 xG chance 2–2
- 90' Fabiano Aris Thessaloniki · 0.33 xG chance 2–3
The model against the result
- PS Kalamata
- 40%
- Draw
- 32%
- Aris Thessaloniki
- 28% What happened
Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.
Projected vs produced
Aris Thessaloniki produced 1.61 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 7
- 19
- On target
- 3
- 7
- Inside the box
- 3
- 15
- xG per shot
- 0.21
- 0.14
- Open play xG
- 1.09
- 0.98
- Set-piece xG
- 0.36
- 0.94
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
PS Kalamata's shots add up to 1.45 xG and Aris Thessaloniki's to 2.74; the published figures are 1.41 and 2.69.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 4.19 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- PS Kalamata
- Aris Thessaloniki
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
No match with expected goals behind it yet.
1.44 xG created 0.94 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| PS Kalamata to win | 3.40 | +36.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | +6.0% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.40 | +2.9% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.30 | +0.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS Kalamata | 40.2% | 27.7% | +12.5 pp | 2.49 |
| Draw | 32.1% | 31.4% | +0.7 pp | 3.11 |
| Aris Thessaloniki | 27.7% | 40.9% | −13.3 pp | 3.62 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | 48.0% | +6.3 pp | 1.84 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.7% | 52.0% | −6.3 pp | 2.19 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | 66.3% | +7.2 pp | 1.36 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.5% | 33.7% | −7.2 pp | 3.77 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 41.0% | +2.8 pp | 2.28 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 59.0% | −2.8 pp | 1.78 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- PS Kalamata sample
- 0 matches
- Aris Thessaloniki sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Warnings
- There is not a single played match in the database for PS Kalamata — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.