Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 20:30
Full timeAlanyaspor 1:0 Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. Alanyaspor won 1–0. The biggest difference was Alanyaspor's attack: 0.54 xG against 1.13 projected (−0.59). Beşiktaş produced 0.74 xG against 1.29 projected (−0.55).
Goals
- 73' Nuno Lima Alanyaspor · 0.01 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- Alanyaspor
- 30% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Beşiktaş
- 38%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Alanyaspor produced 0.59 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 9
- 14
- On target
- 3
- 6
- Inside the box
- 6
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.04
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 0.32
- 0.55
- Set-piece xG
- 0.08
- 0.15
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.41 for Alanyaspor and 0.70 for Beşiktaş.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 1.10 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Alanyaspor
- Beşiktaş
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.05 xG created 1.21 xGA
- L 0.22 created, 0.61 conceded against Kasımpaşa
- L 1.10 created, 1.54 conceded against Samsunspor
- D 0.94 created, 0.15 conceded against Antalyaspor
- W 2.05 created, 1.88 conceded against Kayserispor
- L 0.74 created, 1.78 conceded against Fatih Karagümrük
- D 1.25 created, 1.28 conceded against Gaziantep FK
1.71 xG created 1.17 xGA
- L 1.44 created, 1.09 conceded against Samsunspor
- D 2.02 created, 0.61 conceded against Fatih Karagümrük
- W 1.46 created, 1.68 conceded against Gaziantep FK
- L 2.22 created, 0.69 conceded against Trabzonspor
- D 1.82 created, 2.87 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor
- W 1.28 created, 0.09 conceded against Eyüpspor
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged5 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş not to score | 5.00 | +23.9% | Won |
| Draw | 3.60 | +15.4% | Lost |
| Beşiktaş at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +14.0% | Won |
| Alanyaspor to win | 3.75 | +11.8% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +11.1% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.00 | +4.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | 29.8% | 25.0% | +4.8 pp | 3.35 |
| Draw | 32.0% | 26.0% | +6.0 pp | 3.12 |
| Beşiktaş | 38.1% | 49.0% | −10.9 pp | 2.62 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor to score | 70.4% | 66.3% | +4.2 pp | 1.42 |
| Alanyaspor not to score | 29.6% | 33.7% | −4.2 pp | 3.38 |
| Beşiktaş to score | 75.2% | 81.1% | −5.9 pp | 1.33 |
| Beşiktaş not to score | 24.8% | 18.9% | +5.9 pp | 4.03 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 55.7% | −0.9 pp | 1.82 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.1% | 44.3% | +0.9 pp | 2.22 |
| Alanyaspor 2+ goals | 31.5% | 31.3% | +0.3 pp | 3.17 |
| Alanyaspor at most 1 goal | 68.5% | 68.7% | −0.3 pp | 1.46 |
| Beşiktaş 2+ goals | 37.8% | 50.0% | −12.2 pp | 2.64 |
| Beşiktaş at most 1 goal | 62.2% | 50.0% | +12.2 pp | 1.61 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.9% | 76.6% | −2.7 pp | 1.35 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 23.4% | +2.7 pp | 3.82 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | 52.6% | −8.2 pp | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.6% | 47.4% | +8.2 pp | 1.80 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Alanyaspor sample
- 20 matches
- Beşiktaş sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.