Fenerbahçe 4:2 Konyaspor: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Fenerbahçe Home 2.36 xG · 20 shots

Konyaspor Away 2.15 xG · 17 shots

42 The chances were evenly matched

Fenerbahçe were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 60%. They won 4–2. The biggest difference was Konyaspor's attack: 2.15 xG against 0.92 projected (+1.23). Fenerbahçe produced 2.36 xG against 1.90 projected (+0.46).

Goals

7' Vedat Muriqi Fenerbahçe · 0.40 xG chance 1–0
11' Ebrima Colley Konyaspor · 0.61 xG chance 1–1
20' Mason Greenwood Fenerbahçe · 0.38 xG chance 2–1
33' Marco Asensio Fenerbahçe · 0.13 xG chance 3–1
49' Mason Greenwood Fenerbahçe · 0.08 xG chance 4–1
90' Deniz Türüç Konyaspor · 0.50 xG chance 4–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Fenerbahçe: 60% What happened
Draw: 25%
Konyaspor: 15%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Fenerbahçe 1.90 2.36 +0.46

Konyaspor 0.92 2.15 +1.23

Konyaspor produced 1.23 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Fenerbahçe Konyaspor

Shots: 20; 17
On target: 9; 8
Inside the box: 17; 11
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.12
Open play xG: 0.83; 1.79
Set-piece xG: 1.08; 0.21
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.90 for Fenerbahçe and 2.00 for Konyaspor.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

37 shots · 4.73 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Fenerbahçe
Konyaspor
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Fenerbahçe

2.19 xG created 1.12 xGA

D 2.44 created, 0.74 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor
L 1.25 created, 2.71 conceded against Galatasaray
W 2.05 created, 0.89 conceded against Başakşehir FK
W 3.19 created, 0.64 conceded against Konyaspor
D 1.33 created, 0.52 conceded against Eyüpspor
L 2.90 created, 1.19 conceded against Gençlerbirliği

Konyaspor

1.14 xG created 1.77 xGA

W 1.81 created, 1.01 conceded against Antalyaspor
W 1.18 created, 2.11 conceded against Trabzonspor
L 1.40 created, 1.40 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor
L 0.64 created, 3.19 conceded against Fenerbahçe
L 1.18 created, 1.40 conceded against Kayserispor
L 0.62 created, 1.52 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Fenerbahçe: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged3 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Fenerbahçe against Konyaspor before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Konyaspor to win	10.00	+47.0%	Lost
Fenerbahçe at most 1 goal	3.25	+34.2%	Lost
Draw	5.25	+32.5%	Lost
Fenerbahçe not to score	10.00	+28.0%	Lost
Konyaspor 2+ goals	5.00	+14.9%	Won
Konyaspor to score	1.73	+8.8%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.40	+7.9%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.50	+4.1%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.83	+3.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Fenerbahçe	60.1%	72.8%	−12.7 pp	1.66
Draw	25.2%	17.8%	+7.4 pp	3.96
Konyaspor	14.7%	9.4%	+5.3 pp	6.80

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Fenerbahçe to score	87.2%	90.4%	−3.2 pp	1.15
Fenerbahçe not to score	12.8%	9.6%	+3.2 pp	7.82
Konyaspor to score	63.0%	53.7%	+9.3 pp	1.59
Konyaspor not to score	37.0%	46.3%	−9.3 pp	2.70
Both teams to score	56.4%	50.0%	+6.4 pp	1.77
Both teams not to score	43.6%	50.0%	−6.4 pp	2.29
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals	58.7%	70.9%	−12.2 pp	1.70
Fenerbahçe at most 1 goal	41.3%	29.1%	+12.2 pp	2.42
Konyaspor 2+ goals	23.0%	18.9%	+4.0 pp	4.35
Konyaspor at most 1 goal	77.0%	81.1%	−4.0 pp	1.30
Over 1.5 goals	81.1%	82.8%	−1.7 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.9%	17.2%	+1.7 pp	5.28
Over 2.5 goals	55.0%	61.0%	−6.0 pp	1.82
Under 2.5 goals	45.0%	39.0%	+6.0 pp	2.22

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Fenerbahçe sample: 20 matches
Konyaspor sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.