Monday, 24/08/2026 at 20:30
Full timeKocaelispor 2:0 Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 37%. Kocaelispor won 2–0. The biggest difference was Kocaelispor's attack: 1.31 xG against 0.94 projected (+0.37). Amed Sportif Faaliyetler produced 0.60 xG against 0.91 projected (−0.31).
Goals
- 16' Berkan Kutlu Kocaelispor · 0.03 xG chance 1–0
- 87' Matej Maglica Kocaelispor · 0.18 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Kocaelispor
- 32% What happened
- Draw
- 37%
- Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
- 31%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Kocaelispor produced 0.37 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 12
- On target
- 3
- 1
- Inside the box
- 7
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 1.09
- 0.43
- Set-piece xG
- 0.24
- 0.17
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.31 for Kocaelispor.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 1.93 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Kocaelispor
- Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.86 xG created 1.03 xGA
- D 2.77 created, 0.72 conceded against Göztepe
- L 0.66 created, 1.00 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
- D 0.64 created, 0.85 conceded against Kasımpaşa
- L 0.34 created, 0.31 conceded against Fatih Karagümrük
- L 0.33 created, 1.35 conceded against Antalyaspor
- L 0.43 created, 1.96 conceded against Başakşehir FK
1.50 xG created 0.23 xGA
- W 1.50 created, 0.23 conceded against Erzurumspor FK
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged3 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.50 | +30.0% | Lost |
| Kocaelispor not to score | 3.50 | +26.1% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.00 | +22.0% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.65 | +19.1% | Won |
| Kocaelispor at most 1 goal | 1.53 | +16.7% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 1.83 | +5.9% | Won |
| Amed Sportif Faaliyetler at most 1 goal | 1.33 | +3.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | 32.3% | 42.8% | −10.5 pp | 3.10 |
| Draw | 37.1% | 26.9% | +10.3 pp | 2.69 |
| Amed Sportif Faaliyetler | 30.6% | 30.4% | +0.2 pp | 3.27 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor to score | 64.0% | 73.1% | −9.2 pp | 1.56 |
| Kocaelispor not to score | 36.0% | 26.9% | +9.2 pp | 2.78 |
| Amed Sportif Faaliyetler to score | 62.7% | 64.5% | −1.8 pp | 1.59 |
| Amed Sportif Faaliyetler not to score | 37.3% | 35.5% | +1.8 pp | 2.68 |
| Both teams to score | 42.2% | 50.0% | −7.8 pp | 2.37 |
| Both teams not to score | 57.8% | 50.0% | +7.8 pp | 1.73 |
| Kocaelispor 2+ goals | 23.9% | 39.2% | −15.3 pp | 4.19 |
| Kocaelispor at most 1 goal | 76.1% | 60.8% | +15.3 pp | 1.31 |
| Amed Sportif Faaliyetler 2+ goals | 22.8% | 29.1% | −6.3 pp | 4.39 |
| Amed Sportif Faaliyetler at most 1 goal | 77.2% | 70.9% | +6.3 pp | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.3% | 68.7% | −9.4 pp | 1.69 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 40.7% | 31.3% | +9.4 pp | 2.46 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27.8% | 42.9% | −15.0 pp | 3.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 72.2% | 57.1% | +15.0 pp | 1.39 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kocaelispor sample
- 20 matches
- Amed Sportif Faaliyetler sample
- 1 match
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Amed Sportif Faaliyetler has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.