Samsunspor 1:5 Çorum FK: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Samsunspor Home 1.23 xG · 18 shots

Çorum FK Away 1.73 xG · 12 shots

15 The scoreline reflected the chances

Samsunspor were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. Çorum FK won 5–1. The biggest difference was Çorum FK's attack: 1.73 xG against 1.21 projected (+0.52).

Goals

1' Jesús Ramírez Çorum FK · 0.28 xG chance 0–1
5' Logi Tomasson Samsunspor · 0.05 xG chance 1–1
10' Cengiz Ünder Çorum FK · 0.01 xG chance 1–2
15' Cengiz Ünder Çorum FK · 0.29 xG chance 1–3
69' Alexandros Kyziridis Çorum FK · 0.60 xG chance 1–4
71' Jesús Ramírez Çorum FK · 0.16 xG chance 1–5

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Samsunspor: 40%
Draw: 31%
Çorum FK: 29% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Samsunspor 1.42 1.23 -0.19

Çorum FK 1.21 1.73 +0.52

Çorum FK produced 0.52 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Samsunspor Çorum FK

Shots: 18; 12
On target: 4; 7
Inside the box: 11; 6
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.13
Open play xG: 0.45; 1.58
Set-piece xG: 0.45; 0.01
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.91 for Samsunspor and 1.53 for Çorum FK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 2.49 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Samsunspor
Çorum FK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Samsunspor

1.29 xG created 2.04 xGA

L 0.32 created, 3.31 conceded against Başakşehir FK
W 2.11 created, 2.20 conceded against Göztepe
D 2.80 created, 1.71 conceded against Göztepe
W 0.33 created, 1.85 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor
L 0.46 created, 1.56 conceded against Fenerbahçe
L 1.74 created, 1.59 conceded against Kocaelispor

Çorum FK

1.24 xG created 1.73 xGA

D 0.61 created, 2.90 conceded against Galatasaray
L 1.11 created, 0.32 conceded against Kasımpaşa
L 0.67 created, 2.97 conceded against Beşiktaş
W 2.58 created, 0.73 conceded against Eyüpspor

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Samsunspor against Çorum FK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.40	+4.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Samsunspor	40.1%	43.0%	−2.8 pp	2.49
Draw	30.6%	27.2%	+3.4 pp	3.26
Çorum FK	29.2%	29.8%	−0.6 pp	3.42

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Samsunspor to score	78.8%	78.3%	+0.5 pp	1.27
Samsunspor not to score	21.2%	21.7%	−0.5 pp	4.71
Çorum FK to score	73.0%	72.3%	+0.6 pp	1.37
Çorum FK not to score	27.0%	27.7%	−0.6 pp	3.70
Both teams to score	59.3%	57.7%	+1.6 pp	1.69
Both teams not to score	40.7%	42.3%	−1.6 pp	2.46
Samsunspor 2+ goals	42.9%	46.3%	−3.4 pp	2.33
Samsunspor at most 1 goal	57.1%	53.7%	+3.4 pp	1.75
Çorum FK 2+ goals	34.5%	37.5%	−3.0 pp	2.90
Çorum FK at most 1 goal	65.5%	62.5%	+3.0 pp	1.53
Over 1.5 goals	78.2%	76.6%	+1.6 pp	1.28
Under 1.5 goals	21.8%	23.4%	−1.6 pp	4.59
Over 2.5 goals	50.2%	52.6%	−2.4 pp	1.99
Under 2.5 goals	49.8%	47.4%	+2.4 pp	2.01

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Samsunspor sample: 20 matches
Çorum FK sample: 4 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Warnings

Çorum FK has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.