Trabzonspor 2:1 Başakşehir FK: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Trabzonspor Home 2.27 xG · 19 shots

Başakşehir FK Away 1.95 xG · 12 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Trabzonspor were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Trabzonspor's attack: 2.27 xG against 1.39 projected (+0.88). Başakşehir FK produced 1.95 xG against 1.29 projected (+0.66).

Goals

8' Mohamed Salah Trabzonspor · 0.16 xG chance 1–0
19' Eldor Shomurodov (pen.) Başakşehir FK · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
48' Mohamed Salah Trabzonspor · 0.19 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Trabzonspor: 37% What happened
Draw: 30%
Başakşehir FK: 32%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Trabzonspor 1.39 2.27 +0.88

Başakşehir FK 1.29 1.95 +0.66

Trabzonspor produced 0.88 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Trabzonspor Başakşehir FK

Shots: 19; 12
On target: 8; 4
Inside the box: 13; 8
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.15
Open play xG: 1.98; 0.86
Set-piece xG: 0.05; 0.16
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.05 for Trabzonspor and 1.02 for Başakşehir FK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 3.87 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Trabzonspor
Başakşehir FK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Trabzonspor

1.05 xG created 1.53 xGA

D 1.26 created, 0.79 conceded against Başakşehir FK
L 2.11 created, 1.18 conceded against Konyaspor
D 0.79 created, 1.54 conceded against Göztepe
W 0.69 created, 2.22 conceded against Beşiktaş
L 0.57 created, 1.58 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
D 0.85 created, 1.86 conceded against Kasımpaşa

Başakşehir FK

1.90 xG created 0.82 xGA

D 0.79 created, 1.26 conceded against Trabzonspor
W 2.22 created, 0.24 conceded against Kasımpaşa
L 0.89 created, 2.05 conceded against Fenerbahçe
W 3.31 created, 0.32 conceded against Samsunspor
W 2.21 created, 0.63 conceded against Gaziantep FK
W 1.96 created, 0.43 conceded against Kocaelispor

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Trabzonspor: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Trabzonspor against Başakşehir FK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.60	+9.6%	Lost
Başakşehir FK to win	3.30	+6.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.15	+4.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Trabzonspor	37.2%	45.6%	−8.5 pp	2.69
Draw	30.5%	26.0%	+4.5 pp	3.28
Başakşehir FK	32.4%	28.4%	+4.0 pp	3.09

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.3%	58.9%	+1.4 pp	1.66
Both teams not to score	39.7%	41.1%	−1.4 pp	2.52
Over 1.5 goals	79.0%	78.3%	+0.7 pp	1.27
Under 1.5 goals	21.0%	21.7%	−0.7 pp	4.76
Over 2.5 goals	51.5%	56.3%	−4.8 pp	1.94
Under 2.5 goals	48.5%	43.7%	+4.8 pp	2.06

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Trabzonspor sample: 20 matches
Başakşehir FK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.