CFR 1907 Cluj 1:0 FCSB: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 20:30

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Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

CFR 1907 Cluj Home 1.54 xG

FCSB Away 1.74 xG

10 The chances were evenly matched

CFR 1907 Cluj were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FCSB's attack: 1.74 xG against 1.45 projected (+0.29).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

CFR 1907 Cluj: 38% What happened
Draw: 28%
FCSB: 33%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1.55 1.54 -0.01

FCSB 1.45 1.74 +0.29

FCSB produced 0.29 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

CFR 1907 Cluj FCSB

Shots: 7; 18
On target: 2; 5
Inside the box: 5; 13
xG per shot: 0.22; 0.10

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.61 xG created 1.80 xGA

W 2.79 created, 1.93 conceded against FC Rapid București
D 0.70 created, 0.08 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
D 1.29 created, 0.56 conceded against FC Dinamo București
L 0.83 created, 3.24 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
W 2.88 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Voluntari
L 1.17 created, 3.84 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara

FCSB

1.95 xG created 1.35 xGA

L 0.68 created, 1.32 conceded against FC Hermannstadt
W 1.90 created, 1.86 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
W 1.76 created, 0.26 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
D 4.29 created, 1.97 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
D 0.72 created, 1.31 conceded against Sepsi OSK
W 2.37 created, 1.38 conceded against FC Botoșani

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

CFR 1907 Cluj: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged2 won4 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on CFR 1907 Cluj against FCSB before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals	2.50	+18.9%	Lost
CFR 1907 Cluj to win	2.90	+10.8%	Won
Both teams to score	1.62	+6.8%	Lost
CFR 1907 Cluj to score	1.30	+6.0%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.73	+3.1%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+2.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
CFR 1907 Cluj	38.2%	31.5%	+6.7 pp	2.62
Draw	28.5%	26.9%	+1.6 pp	3.51
FCSB	33.3%	41.6%	−8.2 pp	3.00

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
CFR 1907 Cluj to score	81.5%	72.3%	+9.2 pp	1.23
CFR 1907 Cluj not to score	18.5%	27.7%	−9.2 pp	5.41
FCSB to score	79.2%	78.3%	+0.9 pp	1.26
FCSB not to score	20.8%	21.7%	−0.9 pp	4.81
Both teams to score	66.1%	57.7%	+8.5 pp	1.51
Both teams not to score	33.9%	42.3%	−8.5 pp	2.95
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals	47.5%	37.5%	+10.0 pp	2.10
CFR 1907 Cluj at most 1 goal	52.5%	62.5%	−10.0 pp	1.91
FCSB 2+ goals	43.8%	46.3%	−2.5 pp	2.28
FCSB at most 1 goal	56.2%	53.7%	+2.5 pp	1.78
Over 1.5 goals	84.1%	76.6%	+7.5 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	15.9%	23.4%	−7.5 pp	6.30
Over 2.5 goals	59.7%	54.6%	+5.1 pp	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	40.3%	45.4%	−5.1 pp	2.48

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
CFR 1907 Cluj sample: 20 matches
FCSB sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.