Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 20:30
Full timeFC Dinamo București 2:1 FC Universitatea Cluj
FC Dinamo București were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 60%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FC Universitatea Cluj's attack: 1.94 xG against 1.07 projected (+0.87). FC Dinamo București produced 1.51 xG against 2.09 projected (−0.58).
The model against the result
- FC Dinamo București
- 60% What happened
- Draw
- 24%
- FC Universitatea Cluj
- 16%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Universitatea Cluj produced 0.87 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 20
- On target
- 4
- 4
- Inside the box
- 5
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.10
Recent form
1.70 xG created 1.08 xGA
- W 1.66 created, 0.55 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- D 0.56 created, 1.29 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
- L 1.84 created, 1.37 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- W 3.07 created, 1.08 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- D 1.65 created, 0.48 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- W 1.42 created, 1.72 conceded against FC Rapid București
1.51 xG created 1.79 xGA
- W 0.92 created, 0.29 conceded against FC Rapid București
- L 0.53 created, 2.37 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- W 0.95 created, 1.69 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
- L 1.22 created, 1.79 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- W 3.14 created, 2.14 conceded against FC Botoșani
- W 2.30 created, 2.47 conceded against UTA Arad
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged7 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | +23.0% | Won |
| FC Dinamo București 2+ goals | 1.83 | +17.2% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +15.2% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +10.5% | Won |
| FC Universitatea Cluj to score | 1.53 | +5.3% | Won |
| FC Dinamo București to score | 1.17 | +4.5% | Won |
| FC Dinamo București to win | 1.73 | +4.4% | Won |
| FC Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals | 3.50 | +2.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dinamo București | 60.5% | 52.9% | +7.6 pp | 1.65 |
| Draw | 23.7% | 26.1% | −2.4 pp | 4.22 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj | 15.8% | 21.1% | −5.2 pp | 6.31 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dinamo București to score | 89.6% | 81.1% | +8.5 pp | 1.12 |
| FC Dinamo București not to score | 10.4% | 18.9% | −8.5 pp | 9.57 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj to score | 68.7% | 60.8% | +7.9 pp | 1.46 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj not to score | 31.3% | 39.2% | −7.9 pp | 3.19 |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% | 50.0% | +12.8 pp | 1.59 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.2% | 50.0% | −12.8 pp | 2.69 |
| FC Dinamo București 2+ goals | 63.9% | 50.0% | +13.9 pp | 1.56 |
| FC Dinamo București at most 1 goal | 36.1% | 50.0% | −13.9 pp | 2.77 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals | 29.1% | 26.9% | +2.3 pp | 3.43 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj at most 1 goal | 70.9% | 73.1% | −2.3 pp | 1.41 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.9% | 73.1% | +12.8 pp | 1.16 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.1% | 26.9% | −12.8 pp | 7.09 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.1% | 48.7% | +14.4 pp | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.9% | 51.3% | −14.4 pp | 2.71 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Dinamo București sample
- 20 matches
- FC Universitatea Cluj sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 11 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.