FC Petrolul Ploieşti 0:2 FC Rapid București: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Friday, 21/08/2026 at 19:30

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

FC Petrolul Ploieşti Home 1.26 xG

FC Rapid București Away 1.31 xG

02 The chances were evenly matched

FC Rapid București were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 2–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Petrolul Ploieşti: 29%
Draw: 30%
FC Rapid București: 42% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Petrolul Ploieşti 1.26 1.26 +0.00

FC Rapid București 1.53 1.31 -0.22

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Petrolul Ploieşti FC Rapid București

Shots: 19; 14
On target: 5; 4
Inside the box: 10; 6
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Petrolul Ploieşti

1.06 xG created 2.24 xGA

D 0.44 created, 3.08 conceded against FC Botoșani
L 1.37 created, 1.85 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
W 1.37 created, 1.84 conceded against FC Dinamo București
L 0.68 created, 0.50 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
L 0.25 created, 4.14 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
W 2.23 created, 2.04 conceded against FC Voluntari

FC Rapid București

1.55 xG created 1.12 xGA

L 0.29 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
D 2.55 created, 1.62 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
W 2.25 created, 0.14 conceded against Sepsi OSK
D 1.45 created, 1.79 conceded against FC Botoșani
D 1.05 created, 0.84 conceded against UTA Arad
L 1.72 created, 1.42 conceded against FC Dinamo București

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Petrolul Ploieşti: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Petrolul Ploieşti against FC Rapid București before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Petrolul Ploieşti 2+ goals	3.50	+28.1%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.91	+18.5%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.08	+12.8%	Lost
FC Petrolul Ploieşti to score	1.50	+11.8%	Lost
FC Petrolul Ploieşti to win	3.90	+11.8%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.33	+7.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Petrolul Ploieşti	28.7%	23.7%	+5.0 pp	3.49
Draw	29.5%	28.0%	+1.5 pp	3.39
FC Rapid București	41.8%	48.4%	−6.5 pp	2.39

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Petrolul Ploieşti to score	74.6%	62.5%	+12.1 pp	1.34
FC Petrolul Ploieşti not to score	25.4%	37.5%	−12.1 pp	3.93
FC Rapid București to score	81.0%	76.6%	+4.4 pp	1.23
FC Rapid București not to score	19.0%	23.4%	−4.4 pp	5.26
Both teams to score	62.1%	48.5%	+13.6 pp	1.61
Both teams not to score	37.9%	51.5%	−13.6 pp	2.64
FC Petrolul Ploieşti 2+ goals	36.6%	26.9%	+9.7 pp	2.73
FC Petrolul Ploieşti at most 1 goal	63.4%	73.1%	−9.7 pp	1.58
FC Rapid București 2+ goals	46.7%	44.3%	+2.4 pp	2.14
FC Rapid București at most 1 goal	53.3%	55.7%	−2.4 pp	1.88
Over 1.5 goals	80.9%	70.9%	+10.0 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.1%	29.1%	−10.0 pp	5.24
Over 2.5 goals	54.4%	45.4%	+9.0 pp	1.84
Under 2.5 goals	45.6%	54.6%	−9.0 pp	2.19

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Petrolul Ploieşti sample: 20 matches
FC Rapid București sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.