SC Oțelul Galați 1:0 FC Argeș Pitești: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Monday, 24/08/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

SC Oțelul Galați Home 0.86 xG

FC Argeș Pitești Away 1.16 xG

10 The result went against the chances

SC Oțelul Galați were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was SC Oțelul Galați's attack: 0.86 xG against 1.37 projected (−0.51).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SC Oțelul Galați: 43% What happened
Draw: 32%
FC Argeș Pitești: 25%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SC Oțelul Galați 1.37 0.86 -0.51

FC Argeș Pitești 1.01 1.16 +0.15

SC Oțelul Galați produced 0.51 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SC Oțelul Galați FC Argeș Pitești

Shots: 17; 12
On target: 5; 2
Inside the box: 6; 4
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.10

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SC Oțelul Galați

1.53 xG created 1.31 xGA

W 1.62 created, 1.09 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
W 1.85 created, 1.37 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
W 3.24 created, 0.83 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
D 0.37 created, 2.25 conceded against UTA Arad
D 0.48 created, 1.65 conceded against FC Dinamo București
D 1.60 created, 0.65 conceded against Universitatea Craiova

FC Argeș Pitești

1.25 xG created 1.59 xGA

D 1.62 created, 2.55 conceded against FC Rapid București
L 1.86 created, 1.90 conceded against FCSB
W 0.50 created, 0.68 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
W 2.20 created, 0.00 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
W 0.92 created, 3.37 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
D 0.37 created, 1.05 conceded against FC Farul Constanța

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

SC Oțelul Galați: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SC Oțelul Galați against FC Argeș Pitești before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
SC Oțelul Galați 2+ goals	2.75	+12.1%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.10	+11.7%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.50	+9.4%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.50	+8.0%	Lost
SC Oțelul Galați to score	1.36	+5.5%	Won
FC Argeș Pitești to score	1.53	+1.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SC Oțelul Galați	43.4%	39.7%	+3.7 pp	2.30
Draw	31.8%	31.8%	+0.0 pp	3.14
FC Argeș Pitești	24.8%	28.5%	−3.8 pp	4.04

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SC Oțelul Galați to score	77.3%	68.7%	+8.6 pp	1.29
SC Oțelul Galați not to score	22.7%	31.3%	−8.6 pp	4.41
FC Argeș Pitești to score	66.3%	60.8%	+5.5 pp	1.51
FC Argeș Pitești not to score	33.7%	39.2%	−5.5 pp	2.97
Both teams to score	53.2%	44.3%	+8.9 pp	1.88
Both teams not to score	46.8%	55.7%	−8.9 pp	2.14
SC Oțelul Galați 2+ goals	40.8%	33.7%	+7.0 pp	2.45
SC Oțelul Galați at most 1 goal	59.2%	66.3%	−7.0 pp	1.69
FC Argeș Pitești 2+ goals	26.7%	26.9%	−0.2 pp	3.75
FC Argeș Pitești at most 1 goal	73.3%	73.1%	+0.2 pp	1.36
Over 1.5 goals	72.9%	62.5%	+10.4 pp	1.37
Under 1.5 goals	27.1%	37.5%	−10.4 pp	3.70
Over 2.5 goals	43.2%	37.5%	+5.7 pp	2.32
Under 2.5 goals	56.8%	62.5%	−5.7 pp	1.76

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SC Oțelul Galați sample: 20 matches
FC Argeș Pitești sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.