UTA Arad 5:1 FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

UTA Arad Home 2.86 xG

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc Away 1.16 xG

51 The scoreline reflected the chances

UTA Arad were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 62%. They won 5–1. The biggest difference was UTA Arad's attack: 2.86 xG against 1.91 projected (+0.95). FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc produced 1.16 xG against 0.87 projected (+0.29).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

UTA Arad: 62% What happened
Draw: 25%
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: 14%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

UTA Arad 1.91 2.86 +0.95

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc 0.87 1.16 +0.29

UTA Arad produced 0.95 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

UTA Arad FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

Shots: 16; 10
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 8; 6
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

UTA Arad

1.58 xG created 1.21 xGA

D 2.25 created, 0.37 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
L 1.51 created, 0.79 conceded against FC Voluntari
D 0.84 created, 1.05 conceded against FC Rapid București
L 2.47 created, 2.30 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
D 1.35 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
W 1.08 created, 1.45 conceded against FCSB

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

0.69 xG created 1.72 xGA

L 0.26 created, 1.76 conceded against FCSB
L 0.00 created, 2.20 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
L 0.55 created, 1.21 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
D 1.34 created, 1.31 conceded against Sepsi OSK
L 1.01 created, 1.81 conceded against FC Botoșani
L 0.96 created, 2.02 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

UTA Arad: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on UTA Arad against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	2.00	+9.5%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.95	+5.6%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.29	+3.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
UTA Arad	61.6%	57.9%	+3.6 pp	1.62
Draw	24.8%	24.9%	−0.1 pp	4.03
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc	13.6%	17.1%	−3.5 pp	7.35

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.7%	46.3%	+8.4 pp	1.83
Both teams not to score	45.3%	53.7%	−8.4 pp	2.21
Over 1.5 goals	80.5%	73.1%	+7.3 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.5%	26.9%	−7.3 pp	5.12
Over 2.5 goals	54.2%	48.7%	+5.5 pp	1.85
Under 2.5 goals	45.8%	51.3%	−5.5 pp	2.18

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
UTA Arad sample: 20 matches
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.