FK Čukarički 0:5 FK Vojvodina: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 21:00

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Match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

FK Čukarički Home 1.74 xG

FK Vojvodina Away 1.84 xG

05 The chances were evenly matched

FK Vojvodina were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 5–0. The biggest difference was FK Čukarički's attack: 1.74 xG against 1.38 projected (+0.36).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Čukarički: 30%
Draw: 28%
FK Vojvodina: 41% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Čukarički 1.38 1.74 +0.36

FK Vojvodina 1.61 1.84 +0.23

FK Čukarički produced 0.36 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Čukarički FK Vojvodina

Shots: 15; 17
On target: 7; 10
Inside the box: 8; 8
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.11

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Čukarički

1.40 xG created 1.79 xGA

D 0.42 created, 2.70 conceded against FK Partizan
L 1.78 created, 1.39 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
W 1.16 created, 1.63 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
W 2.37 created, 1.94 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
W 1.66 created, 0.57 conceded against OFK Beograd
L 1.02 created, 2.53 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda

FK Vojvodina

2.93 xG created 1.30 xGA

W 2.38 created, 0.49 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
W 2.15 created, 0.29 conceded against OFK Beograd
W 2.22 created, 2.08 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
W 1.21 created, 1.77 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
L 6.21 created, 2.85 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
W 3.41 created, 0.33 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FK Čukarički: 0 won · 0 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged2 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Čukarički against FK Vojvodina before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FK Čukarički to win	3.80	+15.7%	Lost
FK Čukarički 2+ goals	2.75	+13.0%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.67	+9.1%	Lost
FK Čukarički to score	1.40	+8.6%	Lost
Draw	3.80	+8.0%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+2.3%	Won
FK Vojvodina at most 1 goal	2.00	+1.5%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.70	+0.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Čukarički	30.4%	24.6%	+5.9 pp	3.29
Draw	28.4%	24.6%	+3.9 pp	3.52
FK Vojvodina	41.1%	50.9%	−9.8 pp	2.43

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Čukarički to score	77.6%	66.3%	+11.3 pp	1.29
FK Čukarički not to score	22.4%	33.7%	−11.3 pp	4.46
FK Vojvodina to score	82.4%	79.4%	+3.0 pp	1.21
FK Vojvodina not to score	17.6%	20.6%	−3.0 pp	5.68
Both teams to score	65.5%	55.7%	+9.7 pp	1.53
Both teams not to score	34.5%	44.3%	−9.7 pp	2.90
FK Čukarički 2+ goals	41.1%	33.7%	+7.3 pp	2.43
FK Čukarički at most 1 goal	58.9%	66.3%	−7.3 pp	1.70
FK Vojvodina 2+ goals	49.2%	53.7%	−4.4 pp	2.03
FK Vojvodina at most 1 goal	50.8%	46.3%	+4.4 pp	1.97
Over 1.5 goals	83.8%	76.6%	+7.2 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	16.2%	23.4%	−7.2 pp	6.16
Over 2.5 goals	59.1%	55.3%	+3.8 pp	1.69
Under 2.5 goals	40.9%	44.7%	−3.8 pp	2.44

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Čukarički sample: 20 matches
FK Vojvodina sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.