Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 17:00
33d 4h to kick-offFK Partizan – FK Mačva Šabac
Model updated 5 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Partizan
- 77%
- Draw
- 15%
- FK Mačva Šabac
- 8%
| FK Partizan | Draw | FK Mačva Šabac | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.30 | 6.46 | 13.11 |
- Total goals
- 3.79
- Over 2.5 goals
- 75%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Partizan
77% FK Partizan to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 13th
- FK Partizan attack v FK Mačva Šabac defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 13th
- FK Partizan defence v FK Mačva Šabac attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.11 vs -1.53
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.83 – 0.96
- FK Partizan v FK Mačva Šabac
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 8 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Partizan | FK Mačva Šabac |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.36 · 3rd | 0.80 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.55 · 8th | 2.46 · 13th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.81 · 4th | -1.66 · 13th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.81 · 4th | 0.68 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.11 | -1.53 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 28% of the model's distribution.
- FK Partizan clean sheet
- 35%
- FK Partizan 2+ goals
- 80%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 25%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 9.8%
- 3:1
- 9.7%
- 2:0
- 8.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Partizan sample
- 20 matches
- FK Mačva Šabac sample
- 8 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Partizan
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Mačva Šabac
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 12:30
Warnings
- FK Mačva Šabac has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.