FK Partizan 3:1 OFK Beograd: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

FK Partizan Home 2.71 xG

OFK Beograd Away 1.32 xG

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

FK Partizan were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was FK Partizan's attack: 2.71 xG against 1.73 projected (+0.98).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Partizan: 51% What happened
Draw: 28%
OFK Beograd: 21%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Partizan 1.73 2.71 +0.98

OFK Beograd 1.10 1.32 +0.22

FK Partizan produced 0.98 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Partizan OFK Beograd

Shots: 19; 12
On target: 6; 6
Inside the box: 12; 8
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.11

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Partizan

2.46 xG created 1.32 xGA

D 2.70 created, 0.42 conceded against FK Čukarički
W 2.48 created, 1.91 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
D 2.55 created, 1.17 conceded against FK Zemun
L 0.71 created, 2.25 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
L 4.12 created, 0.74 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
L 2.22 created, 1.40 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani

OFK Beograd

1.27 xG created 1.80 xGA

D 1.12 created, 1.53 conceded against FK Partizan
L 1.78 created, 2.24 conceded against FK Vojvodina
L 0.29 created, 2.15 conceded against FK Vojvodina
D 1.02 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
W 2.84 created, 2.45 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
L 0.57 created, 1.66 conceded against FK Čukarički

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FK Partizan: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Partizan against OFK Beograd before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.00	+11.1%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	+5.3%	Lost
FK Partizan at most 1 goal	2.20	+2.8%	Lost
OFK Beograd at most 1 goal	1.44	+0.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Partizan	51.0%	54.0%	−3.0 pp	1.96
Draw	27.8%	23.3%	+4.5 pp	3.60
OFK Beograd	21.2%	22.7%	−1.5 pp	4.71

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Partizan to score	84.5%	83.0%	+1.5 pp	1.18
FK Partizan not to score	15.5%	17.0%	−1.5 pp	6.46
OFK Beograd to score	69.6%	68.7%	+0.9 pp	1.44
OFK Beograd not to score	30.4%	31.3%	−0.9 pp	3.29
Both teams to score	60.5%	58.9%	+1.6 pp	1.65
Both teams not to score	39.5%	41.1%	−1.6 pp	2.53
FK Partizan 2+ goals	53.3%	57.7%	−4.4 pp	1.88
FK Partizan at most 1 goal	46.7%	42.3%	+4.4 pp	2.14
OFK Beograd 2+ goals	30.2%	35.5%	−5.3 pp	3.31
OFK Beograd at most 1 goal	69.8%	64.5%	+5.3 pp	1.43
Over 1.5 goals	81.3%	79.4%	+1.9 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.7%	20.6%	−1.9 pp	5.35
Over 2.5 goals	55.2%	59.9%	−4.7 pp	1.81
Under 2.5 goals	44.8%	40.1%	+4.7 pp	2.23

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Partizan sample: 20 matches
OFK Beograd sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.