Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 17:00
13d 13h to kick-offFK Železničar Pančevo – FK Partizan
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Železničar Pančevo
- 38%
- Draw
- 28%
- FK Partizan
- 34%
| FK Železničar Pančevo | Draw | FK Partizan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.61 | 3.63 | 2.93 |
- Total goals
- 3.18
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Both teams to score
- 69%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
38% FK Železničar Pančevo to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 6th
- FK Železničar Pančevo attack v FK Partizan defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 2nd
- FK Železničar Pančevo defence v FK Partizan attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.63 vs +1.11
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.63 – 1.54
- FK Železničar Pančevo v FK Partizan
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Železničar Pančevo | FK Partizan |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 2.13 · 5th | (better) 2.36 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.26 · 3rd | 1.55 · 8th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.87 · 3rd | +0.81 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.78 · 5th | (better) 1.81 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.63 | (better) +1.11 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- FK Železničar Pančevo clean sheet
- 19%
- FK Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score: no
- 31%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.6%
- 2:1
- 9.7%
- 1:2
- 9.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Železničar Pančevo sample
- 20 matches
- FK Partizan sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Železničar Pančevo
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Partizan
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.