FK Zemun 0:2 FK Crvena zvezda: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 20:00

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Match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

FK Zemun Home 1.52 xG

FK Crvena zvezda Away 3.51 xG

02 The scoreline reflected the chances

FK Crvena zvezda were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 78%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was FK Zemun's attack: 1.52 xG against 1.01 projected (+0.51). FK Crvena zvezda produced 3.51 xG against 3.01 projected (+0.50).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Zemun: 7%
Draw: 14%
FK Crvena zvezda: 78% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Zemun 1.01 1.52 +0.51

FK Crvena zvezda 3.01 3.51 +0.50

FK Zemun produced 0.51 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Zemun FK Crvena zvezda

Shots: 10; 27
On target: 3; 12
Inside the box: 10; 17
xG per shot: 0.15; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Zemun

0.69 xG created 3.34 xGA

D 1.17 created, 2.55 conceded against FK Partizan
L 0.00 created, 3.98 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
L 0.53 created, 2.77 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
L 1.06 created, 4.05 conceded against FK Radnički 1923

FK Crvena zvezda

2.43 xG created 1.09 xGA

W 3.85 created, 1.07 conceded against FK Čukarički
L 0.88 created, 1.89 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
D 0.74 created, 0.69 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
W 3.93 created, 0.01 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
W 2.67 created, 1.86 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
W 2.53 created, 1.02 conceded against FK Čukarički

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Zemun against FK Crvena zvezda before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	2.50	+45.5%	Lost
FK Zemun to win	29.00	+39.5%	Lost
Draw	11.00	+28.4%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.29	+1.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Zemun	7.3%	3.2%	+4.1 pp	13.62
Draw	14.3%	8.5%	+5.7 pp	7.01
FK Crvena zvezda	78.4%	88.2%	−9.9 pp	1.28

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	64.7%	37.5%	+27.2 pp	1.55
Both teams not to score	35.3%	62.5%	−27.2 pp	2.83
Over 1.5 goals	93.3%	87.5%	+5.8 pp	1.07
Under 1.5 goals	6.7%	12.5%	−5.8 pp	14.99
Over 2.5 goals	78.8%	73.1%	+5.7 pp	1.27
Under 2.5 goals	21.2%	26.9%	−5.7 pp	4.71

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Zemun sample: 4 matches
FK Crvena zvezda sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FK Zemun has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.