Servette FC 0:2 FC St. Gallen 1879: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · Swiss Super League

Servette FC Home 0.90 xG · 12 shots

FC St. Gallen 1879 Away 1.37 xG · 13 shots

02 The scoreline reflected the chances

Servette FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. FC St. Gallen 1879 won 2–0. The biggest difference was Servette FC's attack: 0.90 xG against 1.66 projected (−0.76).

Goals

6' Aliou Balde FC St. Gallen 1879 · 0.07 xG chance 0–1
50' Nevio Scherrer FC St. Gallen 1879 · 0.25 xG chance 0–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Servette FC: 45%
Draw: 28%
FC St. Gallen 1879: 26% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Servette FC 1.66 0.90 -0.76

FC St. Gallen 1879 1.25 1.37 +0.12

Servette FC produced 0.76 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Servette FC FC St. Gallen 1879

Shots: 12; 13
On target: 2; 8
Inside the box: 9; 11
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.50; 0.96
Set-piece xG: 0.42; 0.38
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.90 for Servette FC and 1.37 for FC St. Gallen 1879.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 2.26 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Servette FC
FC St. Gallen 1879
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Servette FC

1.72 xG created 1.13 xGA

W 2.03 created, 0.18 conceded against FC Zürich
L 1.14 created, 1.61 conceded against Basel
L 1.53 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Zürich
W 2.15 created, 0.97 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
D 1.64 created, 1.23 conceded against FC Luzern
L 1.81 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Lugano

FC St. Gallen 1879

2.34 xG created 1.59 xGA

D 2.33 created, 1.43 conceded against FC Thun
W 1.63 created, 1.11 conceded against FC Zürich
W 2.17 created, 2.01 conceded against FC Vaduz
D 3.24 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Luzern
L 2.88 created, 1.26 conceded against FC Thun
L 1.80 created, 2.23 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Servette FC: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Servette FC against FC St. Gallen 1879 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.70	+15.6%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	6.50	+12.9%	Lost
Both teams not to score	3.00	+9.5%	Won
Draw	3.70	+5.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Servette FC	45.5%	43.5%	+1.9 pp	2.20
Draw	28.4%	25.3%	+3.1 pp	3.52
FC St. Gallen 1879	26.1%	31.2%	−5.1 pp	3.83

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.5%	68.7%	−5.3 pp	1.58
Both teams not to score	36.5%	31.3%	+5.3 pp	2.74
Over 1.5 goals	82.6%	85.4%	−2.8 pp	1.21
Under 1.5 goals	17.4%	14.6%	+2.8 pp	5.76
Over 2.5 goals	57.2%	65.2%	−8.0 pp	1.75
Under 2.5 goals	42.8%	34.8%	+8.0 pp	2.34

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Servette FC sample: 20 matches
FC St. Gallen 1879 sample: 20 matches
Computed: 22 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 23 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.