Young Boys 4:2 FC Vaduz: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · Swiss Super League

Young Boys Home 2.19 xG · 20 shots

FC Vaduz Away 1.64 xG · 16 shots

42 The scoreline reflected the chances

Young Boys were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 56%. They won 4–2. The biggest difference was FC Vaduz's attack: 1.64 xG against 1.33 projected (+0.31).

Goals

4' Joël Monteiro Young Boys · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
25' Miloš Cocić FC Vaduz · 0.03 xG chance 1–1
37' Mamadou Kaly Sene Young Boys · 0.29 xG chance 2–1
43' Miloš Cocić FC Vaduz · 0.99 xG chance 2–2
57' Alvyn Sanches Young Boys · 0.10 xG chance 3–2
87' Armin Gigović Young Boys · 0.02 xG chance 4–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Young Boys: 56% What happened
Draw: 24%
FC Vaduz: 20%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Young Boys 2.17 2.19 +0.02

FC Vaduz 1.33 1.64 +0.31

FC Vaduz produced 0.31 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Young Boys FC Vaduz

Shots: 20; 16
On target: 9; 6
Inside the box: 17; 11
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.11
Open play xG: 2.08; 1.64
Set-piece xG: 0.16; 0.11
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.19 for Young Boys and 1.70 for FC Vaduz.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

36 shots · 3.99 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Young Boys
FC Vaduz
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Young Boys

2.76 xG created 1.49 xGA

W 2.71 created, 1.51 conceded against Basel
W 5.57 created, 1.83 conceded against FC Thun
D 1.24 created, 1.78 conceded against FC Sion
W 2.54 created, 1.69 conceded against FC Sion
W 3.38 created, 0.61 conceded against FC Thun
D 1.09 created, 1.54 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport

FC Vaduz

1.49 xG created 2.34 xGA

L 0.71 created, 2.03 conceded against FC Lugano
L 2.01 created, 2.17 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
L 1.75 created, 2.81 conceded against FC Sion

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged3 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Young Boys against FC Vaduz before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Vaduz to win	9.50	+92.1%	Lost
Young Boys not to score	15.00	+42.3%	Lost
Young Boys at most 1 goal	4.00	+35.3%	Lost
FC Vaduz 2+ goals	3.40	+33.0%	Won
Draw	5.25	+23.6%	Lost
FC Vaduz to score	1.50	+14.3%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	3.60	+7.7%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.53	+7.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Young Boys	56.2%	72.2%	−16.0 pp	1.78
Draw	23.5%	17.9%	+5.6 pp	4.25
FC Vaduz	20.2%	9.9%	+10.3 pp	4.94

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Young Boys to score	90.5%	93.6%	−3.1 pp	1.10
Young Boys not to score	9.5%	6.4%	+3.1 pp	10.54
FC Vaduz to score	76.2%	62.5%	+13.7 pp	1.31
FC Vaduz not to score	23.8%	37.5%	−13.7 pp	4.20
Both teams to score	70.1%	60.8%	+9.3 pp	1.43
Both teams not to score	29.9%	39.2%	−9.3 pp	3.35
Young Boys 2+ goals	66.2%	76.6%	−10.4 pp	1.51
Young Boys at most 1 goal	33.8%	23.4%	+10.4 pp	2.96
FC Vaduz 2+ goals	39.1%	27.7%	+11.5 pp	2.56
FC Vaduz at most 1 goal	60.9%	72.3%	−11.5 pp	1.64
Over 1.5 goals	89.6%	89.4%	+0.2 pp	1.12
Under 1.5 goals	10.4%	10.6%	−0.2 pp	9.62
Over 2.5 goals	70.1%	73.7%	−3.6 pp	1.43
Under 2.5 goals	29.9%	26.3%	+3.6 pp	3.34

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Young Boys sample: 20 matches
FC Vaduz sample: 3 matches
Computed: 6 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Warnings

FC Vaduz has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.