Dynamo Kyiv 0:0 LNZ Cherkasy: xG & match report · Ukrainian Premier League

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 12:00

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Match report · Ukrainian Premier League

Dynamo Kyiv Home 1.76 xG

LNZ Cherkasy Away 0.49 xG

00 Dynamo Kyiv had the better chances, but it finished level

A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 36%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Dynamo Kyiv's attack: 1.76 xG against 1.06 projected (+0.70). LNZ Cherkasy produced 0.49 xG against 0.95 projected (−0.46).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Dynamo Kyiv: 35%
Draw: 36% What happened
LNZ Cherkasy: 29%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1.06 1.76 +0.70

LNZ Cherkasy 0.95 0.49 -0.46

Dynamo Kyiv produced 0.70 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Dynamo Kyiv LNZ Cherkasy

Shots: 13; 4
On target: 6; 1
Inside the box: 7; 4
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Dynamo Kyiv

2.05 xG created 1.13 xGA

D 0.90 created, 1.18 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
W 1.74 created, 1.43 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
W 2.65 created, 0.73 conceded against SC Poltava
W 2.77 created, 1.63 conceded against Veres Rivne
W 1.64 created, 0.37 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
L 2.62 created, 1.42 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi

LNZ Cherkasy

1.75 xG created 0.53 xGA

D 1.18 created, 0.90 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
W 1.93 created, 0.23 conceded against SC Poltava
L 1.14 created, 0.22 conceded against Kudrivka
W 1.17 created, 0.46 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
D 3.49 created, 0.22 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
L 1.60 created, 1.16 conceded against Karpaty Lviv

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Dynamo Kyiv: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost

Won
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Dynamo Kyiv against LNZ Cherkasy before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.20	+13.7%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.67	+12.1%	Won
LNZ Cherkasy to win	3.70	+8.1%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.00	+7.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Dynamo Kyiv	35.3%	47.5%	−12.2 pp	2.84
Draw	35.5%	28.2%	+7.4 pp	2.81
LNZ Cherkasy	29.2%	24.4%	+4.8 pp	3.42

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	46.3%	46.3%	−0.1 pp	2.16
Both teams not to score	53.7%	53.7%	+0.1 pp	1.86
Over 1.5 goals	64.2%	68.7%	−4.6 pp	1.56
Under 1.5 goals	35.8%	31.3%	+4.6 pp	2.79
Over 2.5 goals	32.7%	43.7%	−10.9 pp	3.05
Under 2.5 goals	67.3%	56.3%	+10.9 pp	1.49

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Dynamo Kyiv sample: 20 matches
LNZ Cherkasy sample: 20 matches
Computed: 20 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 21 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.