Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 17:00
Full timeFC Epicentr Dunaivtsi 0:0 Bukovyna Chernivtsi
Bukovyna Chernivtsi were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi's attack: 2.19 xG against 1.56 projected (+0.63). Bukovyna Chernivtsi produced 2.18 xG against 1.87 projected (+0.31).
The model against the result
- FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- 30%
- Draw
- 26% What happened
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- 44%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi produced 0.63 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 15
- On target
- 3
- 4
- Inside the box
- 6
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.15
Recent form
1.73 xG created 1.54 xGA
- W 2.37 created, 4.56 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
- D 0.42 created, 1.17 conceded against Metalist 1925
- W 2.67 created, 0.46 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- L 0.47 created, 1.39 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- D 2.05 created, 0.68 conceded against Veres Rivne
- W 2.41 created, 0.97 conceded against Kudrivka
1.94 xG created 2.03 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi sample
- 20 matches
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi sample
- 4 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.