Kolos Kovalivka 0:0 Obolon Kyiv: xG & match report · Ukrainian Premier League

Friday, 28/08/2026 at 14:30

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Match report · Ukrainian Premier League

Kolos Kovalivka Home

Obolon Kyiv Away

Kolos Kovalivka were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 0–0.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Kolos Kovalivka: 38%
Draw: 35% What happened
Obolon Kyiv: 27%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Kolos Kovalivka

1.10 xG created 1.64 xGA

W 2.20 created, 0.62 conceded against Oleksandria
W 0.98 created, 1.06 conceded against Kudrivka
L 1.43 created, 1.74 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
L 0.86 created, 2.29 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
L 0.78 created, 2.46 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
L 0.37 created, 1.64 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv

Obolon Kyiv

0.92 xG created 1.59 xGA

L 0.78 created, 0.54 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
W 2.29 created, 0.86 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
L 0.46 created, 1.17 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
L 0.46 created, 2.67 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
D 0.04 created, 3.27 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
D 1.48 created, 1.03 conceded against Kudrivka

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Kolos Kovalivka: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Kolos Kovalivka against Obolon Kyiv before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Obolon Kyiv to win	5.00	+34.1%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.50	+16.9%	Lost
Draw	3.25	+13.2%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.65	+8.8%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	3.00	+4.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Kolos Kovalivka	38.3%	54.9%	−16.6 pp	2.61
Draw	34.8%	27.3%	+7.5 pp	2.87
Obolon Kyiv	26.8%	17.7%	+9.1 pp	3.73

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	46.8%	37.5%	+9.3 pp	2.14
Both teams not to score	53.2%	62.5%	−9.3 pp	1.88
Over 1.5 goals	65.2%	68.7%	−3.5 pp	1.53
Under 1.5 goals	34.8%	31.3%	+3.5 pp	2.88
Over 2.5 goals	34.0%	42.9%	−8.8 pp	2.94
Under 2.5 goals	66.0%	57.1%	+8.8 pp	1.52

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Kolos Kovalivka sample: 20 matches
Obolon Kyiv sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.